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Original-Research: OHB SE - from NuWays AG
10.11.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
Group.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The
result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an
invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
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Classification of NuWays AG to OHB SE
Company Name: OHB SE
ISIN: DE0005936124
Reason for the research: Initiation
Recommendation: BUY
Target price: EUR 141
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Henry Wendisch
Space coverage relaunched; re-initiate OHB with BUY
With no further information on the intended delisting, it appears that OHB
has chosen to remain a listed company for the time being. Therefore, we
relaunch our active coverage with this in-depth report.
Since our last update in August 2024, dynamics improved materially at OHB
and in the space sector:
Germany's newly unveiled EUR 35bn space defence budget (FY'26-30) positions
OHB as a key national champion poised to benefit from the defence
super-cycle. Assuming a 20% budget share (eNuW), OHB should secure EUR 7bn in
orders, indicating a fundamental revenue shift (defence currently only
accounts for 10% of sales). Importantly, OHB's order intake and backlog have
already reached record levels thanks to prospering civil demand, e.g. from
the ESA flagship mission LISA awarded to OHB in Q2'25 (order size: EUR 839m).
In this oligopolistic market, OHB is Europe's #3 space OEM and only listed
space-tech pure play. A planned merger between the #1 and #2 prompted by
weakness, in our view (also see p. 7) changes the competitive landscape with
OHB being the likely beneficiary.
To further capitalize on their strong positioning, OHB acquired the
remaining 30% of MT Aerospace (c.12% of group output) and has expanded
vertically and geographically, taking over TechniSat's Saxony facility to
internalize satellite electronics production, and entering the UK as
Europe's fourth largest space market to capture geo-return opportunities.
At the same time, OHB generates solid FCFs (although fluctuating due to the
nature of the project business) and has ROCEs well above capital costs,
underscoring the value-accretive nature of its business model. In addition,
EBIT margins look set to expand to 10.5% by 2030e (+3.5pp vs adj. 2025e
level, eNuW), following a comprehensive efficiency programme, which already
shows a tangible impact (see p. 12) and thanks to operating leverage.
Consequently, EBIT is seen to grow at a 24% CAGR into 2030e (eNuW).
The story is not short of catalysts: the ESA Ministerial Council (Nov 2025)
is expected to set the European civil space budget at EUR 20-23bn (eNuW,
18-30% over 2022), with a fundamental paradigm shift towards dual-use
capabilities. Moreover, we expect the German-French JEWEL/Odin's Eye II
missile early-warning programme to be awarded to OHB as prime contractor
(eNuW: EUR 1-2bn volume), where the company has already completed the
feasibility and pre-development studies.
In sum, OHB is evolving from a predominantly civil space player into a
strategic asset for Europe's space defence. Supported by record backlog,
vertical and geographic expansion, and favourable market dynamics, the
company is entering a decade of above-average growth.
Against this backdrop, we re-initiate with BUY. Our PT of EUR 141 reflects a
40% upside and is based on DCF. Also a peer group analysis indicates a 30%
discount on 2027e EV/EBIT.
You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=1f789a90fcac4b2715391daa038f6eb9
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2226586 10.11.2025 CET/CEST
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