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Original-Research: Samara Asset Group PLC - from GBC AG
15.07.2025 / 10:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
Group.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The
result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an
invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
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Classification of GBC AG to Samara Asset Group PLC
Company Name: Samara Asset Group PLC
ISIN: MT0001770107
Reason for the research: Research Comment
Recommendation: BUY
Target price: 3.93 EUR
Target price on sight of: 31.12.2026
Last rating change:
Analyst: Matthias Greiffenberger, Cosmin Filker
Q1 2025 Portfolio and NAV Development
During the first quarter of 2025, Samara Asset Group experienced a decline
in net asset value, driven largely by volatility in its principal assets. As
of March 31, gross asset value stood at approximately 255.3 million euros,
while net asset value settled at around 210.9 million euros. This marks a
reduction from year-end levels of 297.4 million euros for gross assets and
245.2 million euros for net assets. The contraction in value reflects the
twin impact of declining Bitcoin prices and a notable retraction in the
market valuation of Northern Data AG, which together form significant
portions of Samara's asset base.
Bitcoin's price correction through the quarter weighed directly on Samara's
treasury position. At the end of March 2025, Samara held approximately 325
Bitcoin, having reduced its position from earlier levels to fund new
investments and manage leverage. Although Samara employs active strategies
to generate incremental returns from its Bitcoin holdings, the market price
decline translated into a lower euro valuation for this portion of the
portfolio.
Northern Data's share price also retreated sharply in the first quarter.
Having ended 2024 at elevated levels, the equity saw a significant pullback
by late March, driven more by general market sentiment related to the Trump
tariff wars than by company-specific factors. This marked-to-market
reduction in Northern Data's valuation imposed a further drag on Samara's
gross asset value.
Outside of these large exposures, Samara's diversified investments across
venture funds and private equity maintained relative stability. The
fund-of-funds portfolio, which spans a range of sectors including artificial
intelligence, biotech, and blockchain, did not record material valuation
changes during the quarter. New allocations were modest, and the balance
sheet's leverage profile remained conservative. The company continued its
measured approach to balance sheet management, maintaining ample liquidity
and modest debt levels relative to equity.
In summary, Samara concluded the first quarter with a lower net asset value,
shaped primarily by external market movements in Bitcoin and Northern Data
rather than by operational or portfolio-specific deterioration. Despite this
retracement, the underlying investment platform remains intact and well
positioned to capture upside as markets stabilize.
Updated Valuation and Target Price Outlook
Looking beyond the first quarter figures, the valuation outlook for Samara
Asset Group is considerably more constructive when factoring in several
identifiable sources of latent value.
A principal driver of potential NAV growth is the revised valuation of
Samara's equity interest in Plasma. Although the Q1 report does not reflect
this adjustment, events following the quarter-end materially increased the
implied value of this asset. Based on recent financing transactions,
Samara's stake in Plasma now commands a significantly higher valuation than
previously recorded. This single development alone is expected to lift
Samara's net asset value by tens of millions of euros compared to the Q1
baseline.
Moreover, the possibility of a rebound in Northern Data's market
capitalization presents an additional avenue for NAV recovery. While the
first quarter saw a compression in Northern Data's share price, the company
remains positioned in a high-growth industry, and its valuation could
recover to prior levels or beyond if market sentiment improves. Such a
rebound would translate into a considerable uplift in Samara's balance
sheet, reversing much of the unrealized loss observed during the quarter.
Finally, Bitcoin continues to represent both a risk and a substantial source
of optionality in Samara's portfolio. A price environment that trends back
toward higher levels would significantly expand the euro-denominated value
of Samara's Bitcoin reserves. Even moderate appreciation would recapture
much of the decline experienced in early 2025, while more bullish scenarios
would generate a meaningful increment to NAV.
It is important to note that our target valuation for Samara Asset Group is
derived from the target valuations we assign to its underlying assets. For
instance, our intrinsic value estimate assumes a Bitcoin price scenario of
150,000 USD. Therefore, although the NAV as of 31 March 2025 reflects
temporary reductions due to market volatility, this does not alter our
longer-term target price outlook, which is anchored in the recovery
potential of these assets toward our target levels.
Aggregating the current Q1 NAV base with these latent valuation drivers
suggests a substantially higher intrinsic value for Samara Asset Group than
reflected in recent market prices. Pro forma adjustments incorporating the
Plasma repricing, a recovery in Northern Data, and a forward-looking Bitcoin
appreciation scenario imply a net asset value closer to 362 million euros,
equating to an estimated 3.93 euros per share.
Relative to a share price near 2.00 euros, this intrinsic valuation suggests
the stock is trading at a huge discount, offering investors the potential
for significant upside as the various elements of hidden value become
recognized and priced in.
Given the diversified nature of Samara's investments and the company's
demonstrated capability to identify and capitalize on high-growth
opportunities, the prospects for NAV recovery and expansion remain
favorable. In this context, Samara Asset Group continues to warrant a
positive investment stance for investors seeking exposure to high-growth
digital assets and alternative investment strategies.
You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=af637ea515ec633efd1afcab411a1025
Contact for questions:
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher
Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,7,11); Einen Katalog möglicher
Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter:
http:s//www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung
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Completion: 14.07.2025 (16:30)
First distribution: 15.07.2025 (10:00)
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2169572 15.07.2025 CET/CEST
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