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Original-Research: Scandinavian Astor Group AB - from NuWays AG
12.08.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
Group.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The
result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an
invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
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Classification of NuWays AG to Scandinavian Astor Group AB
Company Name: Scandinavian Astor Group AB
ISIN: SE0019175274
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 12.08.2025
Target price: SEK 56.00
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Henry Wendisch
Unjustified summertime weakness, BUY the dip.
Astor's share price has continuously declined over the recent summer, which
is fundamentally unjustified in our view, given almost no relevant news flow
and no signs of a weakening current trading. Here's our take:
Astor's shares have declined by 40% since the latest peak in June.
Fundamentally, this seems highly unjustified in our view. On the contrary,
Astor has produced positive news flow with sound order intakes (Marstrom:
SEK 21m, Oscilion: SEK 15m, Airsafe: SEK 68m, NSG: SEK 35m), closings of
Carbonia and NSG/Cesium and improved access to capital (SEK 320m capital
increase and SEK 128m credit facility). Consequently, Astor looks at a well
equipped M&A war chest and we thus expect further positive news flow going
forward.
Therefore, the current weakness comes as a surprise for us. While the
reasons behind this remain speculative, one can only guess a lower investor
interest and consequent subdued trading activity during the seasonal holiday
season responsible for the decline. Historically, this thesis aligns with
weak returns of the Swedish stock market in the summer.
The share price decline led to an unjustified multiple compression, with
Astor now trading at a very attractive valuation, especially compared to the
peer group. Large defence OEMs trade at 20-29x FY'25e EBITDA (13-22x FY'26e
EBITDA), which is in line with Astor's multiples, however, only based on
reported figures. If the recent, highly profitable M&A is included on a
pro-forma basis, Astor currently trades at 13.7x FY'25e EBITDA (10.5x
FY'26e), which implies 40-50% discount to relevant peers. Only two months
ago, Astor was trading on par with its peers, based on pro-forma figures.
Ukraine talks only impacts news flow, not fundamentals. The planned,
upcoming peace talks between Trump and Putin, are currently causing
volatility in defence stocks, also at Astor. In our view, this is based on
the assumption that potential peace should lead to lower defence spending.
However, with long-term spending cycles, already approved defence programs
and the recent upgrade of defence spending targets, this does not seem
likely, in our view. Therefore, we regard the share price reaction newsflow
driven and not fundamentally justified.
In sum, Astor's shares now offer an attractive and potentially unique entry
opportunity for new investors as well as good way to downward dilute the
entry price for existing investors. Therefore, we reiterate our BUY
recommendation with unchanged PT of SEK 56.00, based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=f8053bd892f437297b8488e6eee30a02
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2182494 12.08.2025 CET/CEST
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