Verbio SE (von NuWays AG): BUY 09.10.2026, 09:00 Uhr von dpa-AFX Jetzt kommentieren: 0

Original-Research: Verbio SE - from NuWays AG



09.10.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to Verbio SE



     Company Name:                Verbio SE
     ISIN:                        DE000A0JL9W6



     Reason for the research:     Update
     Recommendation:              BUY
     Target price:                EUR 41
     Target price on sight of:    12 months
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Jorge Gonzalez



CMD: Investment case confirmed, US upside emerging



VERBIO's Capital Markets Day (CMD) confirms our investment case, with
additional upside from US tax incentives making the medium-term outlook even
more compelling. Following strong FY25/26 results, which confirmed the
earnings turnaround (+9.5pp yoy in EBITDA margin to 10.4%), management
illustrated the group's normalised earnings potential, highlighted progress
in renewable chemicals and reinforced its focus on cash generation. Key
takeaways:



Illustrative mid-cycle EBITDA of c.EUR 300m supports our estimates. Management
presented down-, mid- and up-cycle EBITDA scenarios of EUR 130m, EUR 300m and EUR
500m, respectively. The mid-cycle scenario assumes German GHG quota prices
of EUR 400/t (in line with current levels), normalised biofuel spreads and
full utilisation of existing assets (vs only 70% in bioethanol and 65% in US
RNG in FY25/26, the latter reflecting Nevada only). This broadly matches our
FY30/31-FY31/32 adjusted EBITDA estimates of c.EUR 290-300m p.a., including a
growing contribution from renewable chemicals (eNuW: >80% utilisation), but
excluding potential CO capture benefits at Schwedt.



US incentives provide meaningful additional upside. Management sees US$
30-50m in annual underlying US EBITDA potential from higher utilisation and
biogas integration, broadly consistent with our assumptions (eNuW: c.80%
ethanol utilisation and 25-35% biogas integration at South Bend). This
operating contribution is already reflected in the group's normalised
earnings potential, whereas incremental 45Z and 45Q tax credits for
lower-carbon fuel production and CO capture are excluded. Management
illustrated theoretical gross annual 45Z credits of US$ 13-130m at 90%
utilisation, depending on carbon intensity and before potential value
sharing. The programme runs through 2029, with potential retroactive claims
from 2025. Final US regulatory guidance expected in November should improve
visibility.



Renewable chemicals progressing towards commercialisation. With the first
commercial expansion stage operational, VERBIO has delivered over 130
product samples across seven application segments, including lubricants,
personal and home care, surfactants and polymers. Technical approval rates
reach 90% in certain applications, supporting the transition towards initial
commercial volumes and a growing earnings contribution.



Shift towards cash generation and disciplined capital allocation. Following
a substantial investment cycle, more disciplined capital allocation and
higher asset utilisation should support stronger cash generation. Capex has
fallen from EUR 203m in FY22/23 to EUR 87m in FY25/26 (FY26/27e: c.EUR 55m, eNuW),
while monetisation of accumulated GHG quotas should further support
deleveraging (eNuW: EUR 220m in cash proceeds). A minimum dividend of EUR
0.20/sh. is envisaged through the cycle, ahead of discretionary growth
investments.



eNuW: BUY reiterated; PT unchanged at EUR 41. We leave FY26/27 estimates
unchanged while increasing FY27/28 and FY28/29 EBITDA by EUR 10m each (+3%),
reflecting a conservative initial 45Z contribution. We also incorporate c.EUR
45m of additional cash tax payments in FY26/27 relating to prior-year
earnings, temporarily weighing on FCF and increasing projected net debt.
These adjustments leave our EUR 41 PT unchanged, based on the average
FY27/28-FY28/29 FCF yield.



You can download the research here:
https://nwr.eqs-cockpit.com/fncls2.ssx?fn=redirect&u=462bf09bafb3f5d143c21f6b258b66e4
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research



Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2413036 09.10.2026 CET/CEST