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Original-Research: Westwing Group SE - from NuWays AG
04.08.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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Classification of NuWays AG to Westwing Group SE
Company Name: Westwing Group SE
ISIN: DE000A2N4H07
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Buy
from: 04.08.2025
Target price: EUR 18.00
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Henry Wendisch
Q2 preview: Modest sales but margins to trend up
WEW releases Q2 results on Thursday, August 7th, here's what we expect:
Declining GMV and top-line should be no surprise. WEW started to change its
product assortment and shift its offering more towards the Westwing
Collection. This naturally comes with a hit on GMV and sales which should
therefore not be a surprise. Consequently, Q2 GMV is seen at EUR 110m (-4%
yoy) as a result of lower active customers (eNuW: -6% yoy), thus lower
orders (eNuW:-17% yoy), but mitigated by a rising average basket size (+16%
yoy). Accordingly, sales should arrive at EUR 101m (-5% yoy). More
specifically, the assortment change (and the consequent sales decline) is
seen to be more pronounced in the International segment (eNuW: EUR 42m sales,
-9% yoy), whereas DACH should stay relatively stable (eNuW: EUR 59m sales, -1%
yoy), as DACH's product assortment is already more global and premium.
Rising share of own products as gross margin driver. As a direct result of
the assortment change, the share of the own products called "Westwing
Collection" is seen to further expedite to 63% (+10pp yoy and +1pp qoq),
according to our estimates. This implies a GMV growth of the Westwing
Collection of 15% yoy to EUR 69m, whereas third party products' GMV should
decrease by 24% yoy to EUR 41m, in our view. This development bodes extremely
well for WEW, as we estimate the Westwing Collection to yield gross margins
of 57% (vs. third party products of 43%). In sum, we expect the gross margin
to rise by 0.6pp yoy to 51.2%, which should nevertheless result in a decline
in gross profit to EUR 52m (-3% yoy) due to lower sales.
Rising margins across the board. The positive gross margin effect described
above adds to ongoing efficiency gains in fulfilment. Here, we expect the
fulfilment expense ratio to continue its decline by 1pp yoy to 19.1% of
sales. This implies a total rise in contribution margin by 1.6pp yoy to
32.1% in Q2. On an absolute level, the contribution profit should therefore
remain flat despite the sales decline. Further down the P&L, adj. EBITDA is
actually seen to rise from low levels by 36% yoy to EUR 4.6m (5.2% margin, up
1.6pp yoy) on the back of conservative marketing expenses, a reduced
headcount and flat overhead costs.
Negative FCF expected due to inventory ramp for country expansions.
Following a negative FCF in Q1 of EUR -8.9m, mainly due to a ramp-up in
inventory ahead of country expansions, we expect a similar effect in Q2, but
much less pronounced. Operating CF is seen to arrive nearly break-even at EUR
-1m (which includes an expected EUR -2m of negative WC effect, mainly
inventory) and with another EUR 1.4m of investments, we expect a FCF of EUR
-2.4m in Q2 (H1'25e: EUR -11.3m). However, throughout H2, we expect a gradual
inventory sell down which should lead to an overall positive FCF of EUR 12.3m
for FY'25e v.
In sum, WEW is poised for profitable growth as early as FY'26e, is therefore
a clear BUY and part of our AlphaList with an unchanged PT of EUR 18.00, based
on DCF.
You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=efea4bdb41e75f1af633004c22216f1c
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2178682 04.08.2025 CET/CEST
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