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Original-Research: Westwing Group SE - from NuWays AG
27.10.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to Westwing Group SE
Company Name: Westwing Group SE
ISIN: DE000A2N4H07
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Buy
from: 27.10.2025
Target price: EUR 20.00
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Henry Wendisch & Antonio Perez
On November 6, Westwing will release its Q3 figures, for which we expect
muted GMV and sales, butvisible margin improvements. In detail:
Progressive improvement in GMV and top-line. As the product reassortment
implemented in Q2Ž24 reaches maturity, we expect a much less pronounced
decline in LTM active customers (eNuW:1.23m; -4% yoy), and consequently a
decline in orders (eNuW: 420k, -21% yoy). Thedisproportionate decline in
orders should be a direct result of the product reassortment, which impliesa
shift from more frequent, smaller ticket orders to less frequent, bigger
ticket orders. Mind you, this ispartially offset by a higher average basket
size (+23% yoy). Thus, we forecast Q3 GMV to land at EUR107m (-2% yoy),
reflecting a lower decline vs H1. Accordingly, sales should arrive flat at EUR
96m. Regionally, DACH should still decline by 1% yoy to EUR 53m , as it should
be more affected by thereassortment, whereas in International the same
effect should be visible, albeit revenue fromgeographic expansions might
already be visible, leading to a slight sales growth of 2% yoy to EUR 43m.
Westwing CollectionŽs share to reach new high. After WEW posted a record 65%
GMV share ofown products in Q2, we expect it to reach 66% (+8pp yoy and +1pp
qoq), which implies a 21% yoydecline in third party products GMV, and a +12%
yoy growth in own products GMV. This shouldcome in handy, as the Westwing
Collection products carry structurally higher gross margins than third party
products. As a result, we forecast a gross margin of 51.5% (+1pp yoy),
leading to gross profit of EUR 49m (+2% yoy) in Q3.
Strong EBITDA improvement ahead. The expected gross margin improvement
should be aided bymore efficient fulfillment (eNuW: 18% fulfillment expense
ratio; -0.9pp yoy), which should ultimatelydrive a +1.9pp yoy improvement in
contribution margin to 33.5% in Q3. Moreover, a leaner overheadcost base
(eNuW: G&A expense ratio -2.2pp yoy to 18.8%) thanks to the ongoing business
modeltransformation and complexity reductions, which were strongly visible
in H1, should drive
adj.EBITDA to EUR 4.9m (5.1% margin; +1.4pp yoy), implying a remarkable +40%
yoy growth in Q3 (eNuW).
Guidance fully in reach. Based on our estimates for Q3 and Q4, we expect WEW
to deliver FY'25results comfortably within the guidance (see bottom right).
Sales are seen to arrive at EUR 440m (-1%yoy) and adjusted EBITDA at EUR 32m
(7.2% margin, +1.8pp yoy).
In sum, we maintain our strong conviction on the investment carried by an
imminent return to top-linegrowth with already visible margin expansions,
coupled with a
very attractive valuation. Therefore,we reiterate our BUY rating and keep
WEW as part of our AlphaList with an unchanged PT of EUR20.00, based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=f024c7b5ca555d646fc4e0ba4e2015d5
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2218736 27.10.2025 CET/CEST
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