ZEAL Network SE (von NuWays AG): BUY 08.06.2026, 09:00 Uhr von dpa-AFX Jetzt kommentieren: 0

Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE - from NuWays AG



08.06.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to ZEAL Network SE



     Company Name:                ZEAL Network SE
     ISIN:                        DE000ZEAL241



     Reason for the research:     Update
     Recommendation:              BUY
     Target price:                EUR 80
     Target price on sight of:    12 months
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Simon Keller



Jackpots lining up while valuation remains attractive



A more supportive jackpot environment should drive a visible acceleration in
ZEAL's Q2 billings. Following a soft Q1 jackpot backdrop, Q2 has already
seen eight peak jackpots across Eurojackpot and Lotto 6aus49. While Lotto
typically generates less "jackpot fever" than Eurojackpot, the impact on
market activity is still material: last Wednesday's Lotto draw generated c.
EUR 35m in accumulated stakes, c. 43% above the average Wednesday Lotto draw.



Based on jackpot and stakes data to date, the German lottery market (Lotto
and Eurojackpot combined) is tracking towards c. 8% yoy stakes growth in Q2,
even without assuming any further peak jackpots before quarter-end. ZEAL
should benefit disproportionately from this, driven by ongoing online
penetration, market share gains and its stronger customer activation in
high-jackpot phases. On this basis, we currently estimate Q2 billings of c.
EUR 316m, implying 20.3% yoy growth and a clear sequential re-acceleration
after the muted Q1 (+5.8% yoy, still reflecting a 10pp market
outperformance; incl. proprietary formats).



Peak jackpots remain a key swing factor for player stakes and therefore an
important short-term indicator for ZEAL's financials. Encouragingly, the
base effect should remain supportive into H2 2026. H2 2025 saw only two peak
jackpots across Lotto and Eurojackpot, clearly below the historical average
of 4.5 per half-year. Even a normalisation towards average jackpot frequency
would therefore imply a more favourable market setup, supporting the case
for continued billings momentum beyond Q2.



At the same time, ZEAL's DreamCarRaffle should add further evidence that
ZEAL can build economically attractive proprietary lottery formats beyond
the traditional brokerage model. Season Zero has already reached c. 61%
ticket sell-through ahead of the June 24 closing date, implying collected
ticket proceeds of c. EUR 1.5m. Assuming similar proportions as for ZEAL's
DreamHouseRaffle, c. 37% of the total is earmarked for charities and taxes,
c. 20% for the prize and c. 43% for ZEAL via cost recovery and service fees.
This implies that c. EUR 0.95m of collected ticket proceeds is available to
cover the prize cost of c. EUR 350k and ZEAL's costs, including personnel and
marketing. On this basis, reaching break-even for the initial season appears
realistic, even after allowing for c. EUR 0.6m of operating costs. While the
absolute contribution is still small, higher sell-through should directly
benefit profits, while repeat players and lower customer acquisition
intensity should support future margins. Notably, future seasons are set to
include several cars across different themes, and hence DreamCarRaffle
should broaden its appeal beyond pure sports-car enthusiasts and give ZEAL a
repeatable format to monetise its existing reach and customer base.



In sum, Q2 should mark a clear billings re-acceleration. The structural
online shift, ZEAL's diversification into proprietary formats within its
core lottery expertise and an undemanding valuation further support the case
(2026e EV/EBITDA c. 40% below 5-year average).



BUY, PT EUR 80, based on DCF.



You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=262c2623380b036b722033a9c06decbf
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research



Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++



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2340994 08.06.2026 CET/CEST