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Original-Research: Aspermont Ltd. - from GBC AG
Classification of GBC AG to Aspermont Ltd.
H1 results confirm improving momentum and progress toward scalable Data & Intelligence growth
Aspermont Ltd. reported solid H1 FY2025/26 results, with revenue from continuing operations increasing by 11.3% to AUD 7.48m, compared with AUD 6.72m in the prior year period. The improvement was mainly driven by strong growth in non-subscription revenues, while Subscriptions & Data Licensing Revenue remained broadly stable. Reported net profit after tax amounted to AUD 0.60m, compared with a net loss of AUD 1.28m in H1 FY2024/25. However, the reported profit was supported by the fair value uplift of the strategic investment in Tāiko Critical Minerals, while the underlying result before significant items remained negative. Normalised EBITDA remained negative in H1 FY2025/26 at approximately AUD -1.00m, compared with AUD -0.60m in the prior year period. This reflects continued investment in Data & Intelligence, Mining IQ commercialisation and additional sales capacity. However, the quarterly trend improved significantly. Normalised EBITDA improved from AUD -0.80m in Q1 FY2025/26 to AUD -0.20m in Q2 FY2025/26. In our view, this confirms that the company is beginning to benefit from sequential operating leverage as revenue growth returns and the resized cost base is increasingly utilised. Cash flow development also showed a clear sequential improvement during H1 FY2025/26. Net cash used in operating activities amounted to AUD 1.49m in the first half, compared with an operating cash outflow of AUD 0.06m in the prior year period. The weaker year-on-year development mainly reflects the ongoing investment phase and higher operating expenses. However, Q2 FY2025/26 operating cash flow moved close to break-even after the larger cash outflow in Q1 FY2025/26. Cash receipts from customers amounted to AUD 7.71m, compared with AUD 7.43m in H1 FY2024/25. Management confirmed that the company remains on track to become cash generative from Q3 FY2025/26. Strategically, H1 FY2025/26 was an important period for the development of the Data & Intelligence business. Aspermont completed the full product roadmap, finalised the five-year business plan, established a dedicated operating and leadership team and started platform build and data ingestion. Mining IQ v1 is live with World Risk Analytics, while the 200-year archive digitisation project remains on track for completion in Q4 FY2025/26. New data product betas are expected in 2026, with initial data revenues expected in 2027. The Rio Tinto enterprise contract provides an important validation point for the commercialisation of Aspermont’s proprietary archive content and AI-enabled intelligence solutions. The core subscription business remains the foundation of the investment case. Subscriptions & Data Licensing Revenue amounted to AUD 5.10m in H1 FY2025/26, compared with AUD 5.03m in the prior year period. This includes AUD 5.00m of subscription revenue and AUD 0.10m of data licensing revenue from the Rio Tinto enterprise contract. Aspermont continues to benefit from more than 4,000 corporate subscriptions, 100.0% net retention, ARR above AUD 11.00m and a long-term ARPU CAGR of 17.0%. The company currently expects ARR growth of approximately 7.0% to 8.0% on the existing run-rate, compared with the full-year target of more than 10.0%. However, management continues to expect stronger H2 momentum, supported by Data & Intelligence revenue, enterprise agreements, refreshed go-to-market initiatives and pipeline conversion. We leave our forecasts unchanged. For FY2025/26, we continue to expect revenue of AUD 16.90m and EBITDA of AUD 0.15m. For FY2027 and FY2028, we forecast revenue growth to AUD 18.90m and AUD 21.30m, respectively, with EBITDA increasing to AUD 1.67m and AUD 2.93m. On an underlying basis and excluding the one-off fair value gain from the Tāiko Critical Minerals investment, we continue to expect a negative net result of AUD -0.95m in FY2025/26 before a return to profitability in FY2027. Overall, H1 FY2025/26 confirms the key elements of our investment case. Aspermont is progressing from the FY2024/25 reset phase toward renewed growth, improving cash generation and a higher value Data & Intelligence model. While the company has not yet reached full earnings normalisation, the sequential improvement within H1 FY2025/26 is encouraging. Based on the roll-forward effect and the extension of our target price validity to 30.09.2027, previously 30.09.2026, we increase our target price to AUD 5.45 per share and confirm our BUY rating. You can download the research here: 20260601_Aspermont_Update Contact for questions: GBC AG Halderstraße 27 86150 Augsburg 0821 / 241133 0 research@gbc-ag.de ++++++++++++++++ Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter: https://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung +++++++++++++++ Completion: 01.06.2026 (2:00 p.m.) First distribution: 01.06.2026 (4:00 p.m.)
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2337200 01.06.2026 CET/CEST