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ZEAL Network SE (von NuWays AG): BUY 05.11.2026, 09:00 Uhr von EQS Research Jetzt kommentieren: 0

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Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE - from NuWays AG

05.11.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS Group.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.


Classification of NuWays AG to ZEAL Network SE

Company Name: ZEAL Network SE
ISIN: DE000ZEAL241
 
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
Target price: EUR 85
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Simon Keller

Our tip: above the guidance top end; chg.

We raise our estimates and expect ZEAL to beat its 2026 EBITDA guidance. ZEAL generated c. € 25m of EBITDA before deal costs in Q3 without a peak Eurojackpot. October's stronger jackpot backdrop gives ZEAL scope to repeat that performance in Q4. Conservatively, we still model just c. € 20m.

Social lotteries helped ZEAL grow in a weaker market. ZEAL grew organic sales by c. 9% yoy in Q3 despite a 3% decline in combined German Lotto and Eurojackpot stakes. Eurojackpot had zero draws at the cap versus two in Q3 25. Lotteries segment sales grew 8% yoy, helped by higher ticket sales and related fees from freiheit+ and by the new Dream Car Raffle. A richer product mix lifted the lottery gross margin by 0.6pp to 18.5%. Games sales rose 20% yoy, driven mainly by a 14% increase in monthly active users. Notably, ARPU also rose c. 13% qoq to € 40.93, likely helped by ZEAL's phased rollout of higher spin limits from July. Including € 10.5m from SevenCanyon's first quarter of consolidation, group sales rose 26% yoy to € 77m.

The underlying EBITDA margin reached 32.1%. Excluding c. € 4.9m of deal costs, Q3 EBITDA rose 32% yoy to c. € 25m. Personnel costs increased just 11% yoy against 26% sales growth, the clearest source of positive operating leverage. Direct costs also fell as a share of sales, to 8.3% from 8.8%. Even after deal costs, reported EBITDA rose 6% yoy to € 19.9m (8% ahead of eNuW).

ZEAL needs € 16.3m in Q4 to reach the top end of the FY EBITDA guidance. We see € 20.2m. That implies c. 37% EBITDA growth yoy in Q4 and FY26 EBITDA of € 79.0m, € 4.0m above the guidance ceiling. Our Q4 estimate sits c. € 4.5m below Q3 underlying EBITDA. Three October Eurojackpot draws at the € 120m cap, versus none in Q4 25, should support customer reactivation.

The discount is getting harder to justify. ZEAL trades at just 8.3x FY27e EV/EBITDA against a five-year average of c. 22x. Yet EBITDA growth looks set to nearly double to c. 28% yoy in FY27, taking EBITDA to c. € 101m with the margin back above 30%. Secular growth and a track record of turning EBITDA into cash (five-year historical FCF/EBITDA of c. 92%) still support a multiple around ZEAL's historical average, in our view. The PT implies 18x 2027e EV/EBITDA (eNuW).

Management seems to see value here too. The CEO and CFO bought c. € 87k of shares in late September at average prices of € 42.14 and € 42.80, respectively. This compares to a share price of c. € 40 today.

ZEAL's growth is becoming less dependent on the jackpot calendar. Its own lotteries and Games give players reasons to return between big draws, and SevenCanyon gives ZEAL a platform for international expansion.

Action: the strong Q3 operating performance points to the group's potential and supports a 5.6% average increase in FY26-28e EBITDA estimates.

BUY, PT raised to € 85 (old: € 83), based on DCF.

You can download the research here: zeal-network-se-2026-11-05-previewreview-en-a2e70
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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