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Original-Research: Nabaltec AG - from NuWays AG
09.02.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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Classification of NuWays AG to Nabaltec AG
Company Name: Nabaltec AG
ISIN: DE000A0KPPR7
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 09.02.2026
Target price: EUR 18.00
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Christian Sandherr
Unjustified valuation disconnect;BUY
Despite challenging industry conditions that have pushed several larger
peers close to breakeven, Nabaltec continues to deliver resilient margins
and robust operating cash flows. At the same time, the company now boasts a
significantly strengthened balance sheet. Nevertheless, the shares are
trading at their lowest level in over a decade, a valuation disconnect that
we believe is unwarranted.
Q4 to put NTG in the mid-points of the FY25 margin guidance. With Q4 sales
showing similar trajectory as the first three quarters (9M -2.4% yoy), the
expected EUR 44.4m sales (eNuW) are to put NTG at the lower end of the FY
sales guidance (1-2% yoy sales decline). Importantly, despite an expected
margin of only 4.3%, NTG should meet the guidance mid-point of 8%. With
this, the company outperforms most of its listed chemical peers, which are
around the break-even point (e.g. Lanxess, and Wacker Chemie).
FY26 to return to growth. For the current year, we expect Nabaltec to return
to mid single-digit sales growth (5.6%) despite some pricing headwinds
compensated for by higher volumes. Most importantly, demand for ground
hydroxides (ATH) is seen to remain robust thanks to several secular trends
(AI being one of them). At the same time, further volume increases of
viscosity optimized hydroxides should overcompensate for the still weak
boehmite demand. Next to boehmites, Specialty Alumina is likely to continue
moving sideways. Margins to remain well, under continued challenging
circumstances; eNuW 8.3% EBIT margin.
Current capex program coming to an end. In FY25e, NTG should have spend some
EUR 25m on capex, slightly below our old EUR 32m estimate due to some
postponements. With this, FY26e capex is seen at EUR 30m (eNuW), returning to
a sustainable level of EUR 15m p.a. thereafter. With this, all major
maintenance investments as well as the production capacity expansions for
viscosity-optimized hydroxides and boehmite should be finalized, enabling
potential group sales of up to EUR 300m. Importantly, even if boehmite demand
does not recover as quickly as anticipated, the additional capacity can be
flexibly utilized by shifting production toward ATH.
Valuation remains compelling. The shares continue to trade at a significant
37% discount to book value, despite the company navigating the current
market environment effectively. Notably, the last time Nabaltec traded below
book value, the company was highly leveraged and struggling with margins (EUR
4-5m EBIT with more than EUR 50m net debt), a strong contrast to today's much
stronger financial position (close to no net debt). Over the past five years
(incl. 2025e), Nabaltec has generated EUR 141m in operating cash flow,
underpinning solid cash conversion. Accordingly, adjusted free cash flow
yield (maintenance capex only) is an attractive 14.8% in FY25e.
We hence confirm our BUY rating with an unchanged EUR 18 PT, which is based on
a blended FY25/26e FCFY approach.
You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=2424bce39ec8a53a27240dabd3fb1b36
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2273026 09.02.2026 CET/CEST
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