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Original-Research: Schaeffler AG - from Quirin Privatbank
Kapitalmarktgeschäft
04.03.2026 / 10:27 CET/CEST
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Classification of Quirin Privatbank Kapitalmarktgeschäft to Schaeffler AG
Company Name: Schaeffler AG
ISIN: DE000SHA0100
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 04.03.2026
Target price: 8.70
Last rating change:
Analyst: Daniel Kukalj, CEFA, CIIA
Everything depends on e-mobility
In our view, the 2025 financial figures presentation was a non-event; the
recent decline in the share price is due to geopolitical crises and the
rather conservative outlook for 2026. The gap is also widening in some areas
with regard to the medium-term targets (MTT) for 2028.
Revenue gap: The group 2026 guidance midpoint of EUR 23.5bn sits well below
the MTT 2028 of EUR 27-29bn. Closing this gap requires incremental revenue
of EUR 3.5-5.5bn in just two years, implying a required annual growth rate
of ~7-11%. The vast majority of this growth must come from E-Mobility (which
needs to roughly double from EUR ~5.5bn to EUR 8.25-9.0bn) and VLS (from
~EUR 3.2bn to EUR 3.75-4.25bn). This makes the successful delivery of the
EUR 9.3bn order backlog in E-Mobility the single most critical variable for
the investment case. Any delays in OEM program launches or shifts in EV
adoption timelines would directly impact this trajectory.
EBIT margin gap: The 2026 EBIT margin midpoint of 4.5% needs to expand to
6-8% by 2028, requiring 150-350bps of improvement. This is achievable
through three vectors: (1) E-Mobility loss reduction / breakeven adding
~200-300bps to group margin as the division scales from -14% to 0%, (2)
continued synergy/restructuring benefits reaching the full EUR 815m
run-rate, and (3) operating leverage from revenue growth in VLS and B&IS.
PTC is essentially margin-neutral at target already.
We confirm our BUY rating with a higher PT of EUR 8.70 (7.50) based on our
ROE/COE valuation approach, now including 2027-2028 estimates.
Conclusion - not all is bad
Schaeffler shares trade at an implied EV/EBITDA of approximately 6.2x on FY
2026e numbers at a discount of > 20% to Global automotive supplier peers.
This discount reflects the market's skepticism on E-Mobility breakeven and
the structural challenges in the European automotive landscape. However, the
order intake data underscores a pivotal shift in Schaeffler's powertrain
mix. The HEV book-to-bill of 2.2x (FY) and 3.3x (Q4 alone) signals a massive
wave of incoming hybrid orders from European and American OEMs for mild
hybrid drive systems and double inverters. BEV continues to outperform
market growth by over 13 percentage points, though the 1.3x book-to-bill is
more moderate. ICE, predictably, is in managed decline with a 0.7x
book-to-bill. Total order intake of EUR 15.5bn against sales of EUR 12.5bn
(1.2x book-to-bill) provides strong revenue visibility for the group's
automotive divisions. The 20% dividend increase to EUR 0.30 per share
(approximately 5.9% yield) provides some downside support.
You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=0880076469dcfb3384c9192c51e53b5e
For additional information visit our website:
https://research.quirinprivatbank.de/
Contact for questions:
Quirin Privatbank AG
Institutionelles Research
Schillerstraße 20
60313 Frankfurt am Main
research@quirinprivatbank.de
https://research.quirinprivatbank.de/
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2285574 04.03.2026 CET/CEST
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