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Original-Research: UmweltBank AG - from GBC AG
03.03.2026 / 10:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
Group.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The
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invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
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Classification of GBC AG to UmweltBank AG
Company Name: UmweltBank AG
ISIN: DE0005570808
Reason for the research: Research Comment
Recommendation: BUY
Target price: EUR9.00
Last rating change:
Analyst: Cosmin Filker, Marcel Goldmann
Operational turnaround achieved in 2025, continued growth expected
According to preliminary figures for the 2025 financial year, UmweltBank AG
achieved a significant increase in operating income to EUR83.10 million
(previous year: EUR63.47 million), as expected. The increase in net interest
income to EUR58.45 million (previous year: EUR44.95 million) made a significant
contribution to this. In our view, this is due in particular to strong
growth in the core private customer business. As already announced in
January 2026, retail customer deposits climbed to the previously forecast
figure of around EUR4.3 billion (previous year: EUR3.5 billion) as of December
31, 2025.
The strong growth in retail deposits also offset the below-expectations
performance in corporate banking. Outstanding environmental loans fell to
EUR3.12 billion as of December 31, 2025 (December 31, 2024: EUR3.46 billion).
This is the result of low gross new lending of EUR120 million (previous year:
EUR250 million). Originally, new loans of EUR200 million to EUR250 million had
been promised. The limited capital resources during the year had a
restrictive effect here. In addition, the company reports project
postponements into the current fiscal year.
In view of the significant increase in total revenue, earnings before taxes
and reserves climbed to EUR6.43 million (previous year: EUR-8.50 million), which
was in line with the guidance, which had forecast earnings before taxes in a
range of EUR5 million to EUR10 million. The bottom line is that net income for
the year increased to EUR14.26 million (previous year: EUR0.73 million). The
reversal of reserves in accordance with Section 340g of the German
Commercial Code (HGB) in the amount of EUR5.0 million contributed to this in
particular. This is a passive exchange, i.e., a conversion into retained
earnings recognized in equity. These reserves were formed in previous
financial years on the basis of after-tax earnings and are not related to
the risk structure of UmweltBank AG.
With the publication of the preliminary figures, UmweltBank's management has
published forecasts for the current 2026 financial year for the first time
and at the same time updated its forecast scenario up to 2028. For 2026, the
bank anticipates earnings before taxes and reserves of EUR12.5 million to
EUR17.5 million, which would represent at least a doubling of earnings.
This is based in particular on a sharp rise in expected interest income to a
range of EUR62.5 million to EUR67.5 million. This is based on the planned
expansion of retail customer deposits to EUR5.4 billion, before they are
expected to increase further to EUR6.2 billion by 2028. The special conditions
that have been introduced are to be continued for the time being. However,
positive effects in connection with the introduction of current accounts and
the expansion of the product portfolio are likely to come to the fore
increasingly.
At the same time, the now significantly more comfortable capital base should
be used to expand the loan portfolio. According to UmweltBank AG's plan, the
implementation of postponed projects and the development of new business
areas (such as battery storage and PPA financing for wind power plants)
should increase gross new lending to EUR450 million. This would also increase
the outstanding loan volume to EUR3.2 billion by the end of the 2026 financial
year. UmweltBank AG expects this figure to rise to EUR3.8 billion by the end
of 2028. On this basis, and based on a continued improvement in its treasury
positioning, where it plans to build up short- to-medium-term investment
portfolios while the yield curve rises, the increase in net interest income
is expected to be achieved. Our forecasts for the following years are based
on the company's updated plan scenario with regard to customer deposits and
lending volume. In the last estimation period, however, we assume a slightly
flatter growth curve.
According to our estimates, the noticeable increase in net interest income
would be sufficient to compensate for the expected low financial result.
Commission and trading income are also likely to contribute to the increase
in total income. The company plans to gradually expand its product portfolio
in this area. The introduction of various equity and bond ETFs is planned
for the current financial year.
The earnings growth we assume is likely to be accompanied by a
disproportionately low increase in costs. After UmweltBank AG invested in
digitalization and transformation in previous fiscal years, savings should
be achieved as part of the current efficiency and cost program. This is
particularly true as the resolution of regulatory deficits has freed up
personnel capacities. Based on the company scenario, we initially expect
operating expenses (personnel expenses and other administrative expenses) to
decline to EUR67.14 million (previous year: EUR71.29 million) in the current
2026 financial year, before rising again in the course of the expected
business expansion. For 2028, we are calculating a CIR (cost-income ratio)
of 80.9%. According to UmweltBank's plan scenario, this is expected to fall
to below 60% by 2028. Due to the flatter growth curve, we are anticipating a
CIR of 67.4% in this final estimation period.
All in all, we expect a significant increase in both pre-tax earnings and
net income. Since we do not anticipate any reversal of reserves and will
also include tax expenses again after returning to sustainable
profitability, the forecast net income for the current 2026 financial year
will initially decline. However, tax expenses are likely to continue to
benefit from the reversal of loss carryforwards for which UmweltBank had not
recognized deferred tax assets.
We used a residual income model to value UmweltBank AG. The sum of the
discounted residual earnings amounts to EUR380.14 million (previously: EUR388.30
million). Taking into account the 41.28 million outstanding shares, the fair
enterprise value per share is EUR9.00 (previously: EUR9.40). The reduction in
fair value is mainly due to the increase in the discount rate to 5.84%
(previously: 5.34%). This results from an increase in the risk-free interest
rate. We continue to assign a BUY rating.
You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=5ad6647b8d05428128426d1c29d0f2d1
Contact for questions:
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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Date (time) Completion: 02.03.2026 (1:52 pm)
Date (time) first transmission: 03.03.2026 (10:00 am)
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