Verve Group Media SE (von GBC AG): BUY 16.09.2026, 10:30 Uhr von dpa-AFX Jetzt kommentieren: 0

Original-Research: Verve Group Media SE - from GBC AG



16.09.2026 / 10:30 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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Classification of GBC AG to Verve Group Media SE



     Company Name:               Verve Group Media SE
     ISIN:                       SE0018538068



     Reason for the research:    Research study (Note)
     Recommendation:             BUY
     Target price:               6.80 EUR
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                    Marcel Goldmann, Cosmin Filker



Stable operating performance in H1 2026; significant acceleration in revenue
growth expected in the second half of the year



BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT H1 2026



At the end of August 2026, Verve Group Media SE published its Q2 and
half-year figures for 2026. According to these, the ad-tech group achieved
moderate growth in the first six months of the current financial year,
despite a macroeconomic environment that remained challenging and
currency-related headwinds (USD depreciation). Consequently, on a
like-for-like basis, consolidated revenue rose by 2.9% to EUR 293.9 million in
the first half of the year (H1 2025: EUR 285.7 million), thanks to organic
growth, primarily driven by the expansion of the software customer base.
Reported revenue even rose significantly by 34.5% to EUR 289.5 million (H1
2025: EUR 215.2 million).



With regard to operating profit, Verve saw its EBITDA fall to EUR 44.9 million
(H1 2025: EUR 54.5 million) due to significant investments in expanding the
sales team, product innovations (development of the retail media business)
and internal structural optimisation measures. In addition to one-off
effects, exceptional items also had a significant negative impact on
earnings performance.



Adjusted for one-off costs and exceptional items (e.g. severance payments
and consultancy fees), adjusted EBITDA (Adj. EBITDA) remained virtually
stable compared with the previous year at EUR 58.4 million (H1 2025: EUR 59.6
million). This resulted in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 19.9%, which was
thus slightly below the previous year's level (H1 2025: 20.9%).



The first six months of the financial year can therefore be regarded as a
phase of investment and transition. This financial period is therefore also
in line with the company's statements at the start of the year, according to
which the first half of the year represents an front-loaded investment phase
with initially lower expected EBITDA margins, during which the costs of
expanding sales, retail media and platform development are immediately
reflected in the key figures, before the expected full revenue contribution
from these areas is set to materialise with a time lag.



On a net basis, the adjusted net result at the end of the first half of the
year stood at EUR 13.1 million, which was also virtually on a par with the
previous year's figure (H1 2025: EUR 13.3 million).



Business performance in Q2 2026



As already outlined in the previous half-year analysis, the ad-tech
company's second quarter was characterised above all by a challenging
macroeconomic environment (weaker consumer spending, high oil prices,
tariffs, etc.), which led to lower advertising expenditure in some sectors
important to Verve (e.g. retail, tourism and the automotive sector). These
sector-specific declines could only be partially offset by higher
advertising expenditure in other sectors, such as the gaming and
entertainment industries.



Consequently, Verve continued on its growth trajectory in the second quarter
of 2026, albeit with significantly weaker growth momentum than management
had originally anticipated. On a like-for-like basis, consolidated revenue
in Q2 rose significantly by 6.5% year-on-year to EUR 152.31 million (Q2 2025:
EUR 143.10 million). Of the growth achieved, 3.5% was attributable to organic
growth and 4.6% to inorganic growth, whilst negative currency effects
reduced the growth rate by 1.7%.



Their solid business performance in the second quarter was driven primarily
by the expansion of their software customer base following a further
increase in their sales team. Accordingly, the total number of software
customers and large software customers (with revenue volumes exceeding USD
100,000) rose significantly to 4,176 (Q2 2025: 3,079) and 1,159 (Q2 2025:
954) respectively. The customer retention rate (relating to major software
customers) and the so-called 'net-$ expansion rate' also improved slightly
to 99.0% (Q2 2025: 98.0%) and 95.0% (Q2 2025: 92.0%) respectively. In
contrast, the number of so-called 'ad impressions' fell significantly to
234.0 billion (Q2 2025: 259 billion) by the end of the second quarter. The
main reason for this was the deliberate reduction in business activities
relating to non-premium and low-quality advertising inventory.



In terms of margin performance, Verve was able to significantly increase its
gross margin (on a like-for-like revenue basis) at the end of the second
quarter compared with the same quarter of the previous year to 40.0% (Q2
2025: 33.1%), thanks to the positive effects of the completed platform
standardisation. In addition to the improved platform performance resulting
from the platform migration, more efficient management of cloud hosting
utilisation and costs has also led to a significant rise in the gross
margin.



With regard to the development of operating results, EBITDA in Q2 was
significantly impacted by several one-off and exceptional items that weighed
on earnings, leading to a marked decline in operating profit of 22.7% to EUR
20.88 million (Q2 2025: EUR 27.00 million). These effects included, amongst
other things, costs associated with the company's relocation from Sweden to
Ireland, the switch to US dollar reporting and a potential US listing, the
streamlining of the international network of sites, and various costs
relating to the optimisation of the workforce. According to the company, the
one-off costs associated with these restructuring measures alone totalled
approximately EUR 4.20 million and are expected to enable annual savings of at
least EUR 8.00 million in future.



By contrast, consolidated EBITDA, adjusted for one-off and exceptional items
(e.g. restructuring or consultancy costs), rose slightly compared with the
same quarter of the previous year to EUR 30.10 million (Q2 2025: EUR 29.50
million). At the same time, the adjusted EBITDA margin, at 19.8%, remained
virtually at the same level as the corresponding quarter of the previous
year (Q2 2025: 20.6%).



FORECASTS AND MODEL ASSUMPTIONS



As part of its recently published Q2 and half-year results, the Verve Group
has also confirmed its guidance for the current financial year. Accordingly,
the ad-tech company continues to expect revenue for the current financial
year to be in the range of EUR 680 million to EUR 730 million and adjusted
EBITDA (Adj. EBITDA) of EUR 145 million to EUR 175 million.



Against the backdrop of their half-year performance, which fell short of our
expectations, and the current noticeably more challenging operating
environment (due, for example, to the Iran conflict, etc.), we have revised
our previous estimates downwards. For the current financial year, we now
expect revenue and adjusted EBITDA of EUR 684.17 million (previously: EUR 750.37
million) and EUR 146.56 million (previously: EUR 179.46 million) respectively,
and consequently expect to reach the lower end of the guidance range.



Given the expected higher productivity of the expanded sales organisation
and the typically stronger seasonality in the third and fourth quarters, we
continue to anticipate moderate and significant growth in revenue and
earnings, respectively, compared with the previous year's levels. Verve's
management has already indicated that business volume on its advertising
platform has improved in the current third quarter.



For the subsequent financial years 2027 and 2028, we forecast revenue of EUR
789.53 million (previously: EUR 875.95 million) and EUR 905.59 million
(previously: EUR 1,010.85 million) respectively. In parallel, we forecast
adjusted EBITDA (Adj. EBITDA) of EUR 192.65 million (previously: EUR 219.65
million) and EUR 230.93 million (previously: EUR 264.84 million) for these
financial periods respectively. Given the continued gradual expansion of the
sales base, the promising entry into the retail media market and the
innovative AI-based advertising solutions, Verve should be able to
significantly pick up the pace of growth again in the medium term and, in
doing so, also substantially increase and improve its operational
performance.



Against the backdrop of our reduced revenue and earnings estimates for the
current financial year and subsequent years, we have moderately lowered our
previous price target to EUR 6.80 per share (previously: EUR 7.65). However,
this reduction in the price target is offset by the so-called 'roll-over
effect', which has a price-target-raising impact. The new target price
horizon is 31 December 2027 (previously: 31 December 2026), which, from a
modelling perspective, is associated with a slight increase in the target
price. In view of the current share price level, we therefore maintain our
'BUY' rating.





You can download the research here:
https://nwr.eqs-cockpit.com/fncls2.ssx?fn=redirect&u=a735c355400aaa6947084abe777b3017



Contact for questions:
GBC AG
Halderstrasse 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de



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Date (time) of completion: 16/09/2026 (8:20)
Date (time) of first distribution: 16/09/2026 (10:30)



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2399982 16.09.2026 CET/CEST