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Original-Research: Vossloh AG - from Quirin Privatbank Kapitalmarktgeschäft
03.11.2025 / 10:55 CET/CEST
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Classification of Quirin Privatbank Kapitalmarktgeschäft to Vossloh AG
Company Name: Vossloh AG
ISIN: DE0007667107
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Buy
from: 03.11.2025
Target price: 94
Last rating change:
Analyst: Daniel Kukalj, CIIA, CEFA
Everything will be fine if the Sateba integration goes well
After the solid Q3 2025 results we maintain our Buy rating with a reduced TP
of EUR 94 (102), applied by our ROE/COE valuation approach. The company was
able to increase its TTM sales by 9.6% yoy or 2.2% qoq. TTM order intake
fell by 0.8% yoy, however was 5.6% qoq higher, the TTM book-to-bill ratio
was with 1.02x again over the important threshold of 1.0x. The TTM net
income margin fell by 43 basis points yoy and by 17 basis points qoq. For FY
2025, Vossloh now expects group sales including Sateba of EUR 1.33-1.4bn
(QPe: EUR 1.333bn) and consolidated EBIT before effects from the purchase
price allocation (PPA effects) for Sateba of EUR 116-126m (QPe: EUR 121m).
The specified forecast already takes into account transaction and
integration costs. The PPA effects for Sateba are expected to have a
significant negative impact on EBIT in the first 24 months after closing. As
a consequence, we reduced our net income forecast for FY 2025 by 7%, for FY
2026 by 31% and for FY 2027 by 19%. Vossloh shares have risen ~+84% ytd
thanks to strong performance in terms of sales and order intake in recent
quarters, also driven by high investor interest in the whole infrastructure
sector. In the short term, we see only limited catalysts due to the fact
that, despite the sales trend, the profit trend has yet to gain momentum.
Our focus is now on the successful integration of Sateba. In the medium to
long term, there is enormous demand for investment in the rail sector, so we
expect a very positive environment for Vossloh's further business
development, also with regard to achieving its 2030 targets.
You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=901c0f5e85af2db6771617157509e41c
For additional information visit our website:
https://research.quirinprivatbank.de/
Contact for questions:
Quirin Privatbank AG
Institutionelles Research
Schillerstraße 20
60313 Frankfurt am Main
research@quirinprivatbank.de
https://research.quirinprivatbank.de/
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