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Original-Research: Marley Spoon Group SE - from NuWays AG
22.08.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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Classification of NuWays AG to Marley Spoon Group SE
Company Name: Marley Spoon Group SE
ISIN: LU2380748603
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 22.08.2025
Target price: EUR 1.00
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Christian Sandherr
Persisting headwinds, FY25 guidance cut; chg.
Marley Spoon cut its FY25 guidance, now projecting sales of EUR 250-270m, down
from "a single-digit % yoy decline" compared to the FY24 figure of EUR 308m
(eNuW old: EUR 303m). The reasons behind that are multifaceted, including a
weaker USD, a faster than initially expected deconsolidation of the sold
Chefgood but also weaker demand for its products during the current holiday
season. We expect the US to have continued to show signs of stabilizing
subscription numbers coupled with a further improving quality while Europe
is likely to have remained behind expectations.
On the flip side, the company lifted its forecasted contribution margin to
36-37.5%, up from around 34.5% last year (old guidance: improvement by
>100bps, eNuW old: 35.8%) indicating notably improved cost control and
pricing power but also positive implications from the Chefgood divestment
(better product mix).
Operating EBITDA is expected to remain positive, though growth expectations
have been scaled back to 30-50% yoy, down from prior projections of 70-80%,
a prudent adjustment in anticipation of a lower fix cost coverage due to the
revenue short-fall.
Marley Spoon transformation should remain largely on track. With the launch
of its single brand strategy, which includes the discontinuation of its
Dinnerly brand in Europe and the expected launch of its ready-to-eat (RTE)
offering in Europe, management is re-shaping the company allowing for
slimmer processes and synergies in marketing. Mind you, during the mid-term,
management highlighted plans to offer additional food and nutrition
solutions (e.g. juice packs, healthy snacks, special diet meals) under the
Marley Spoon brand, ultimately increasing the value proposition for
customers on the platform.
Refinancing remains number one priority. With more than EUR 70m of debt, only
little free cash flow generation and almost EUR 12m of annual interest
obligations, management is in dire need of finding a suitable long-term
solutions with its debtors. As the outcome will be crucial for upcoming
operational decisions, we would expect a somewhat slower transformation in
order to secure liquidity for the time being. We expect the company to
release an update with the schedule H1 report publication in September.
BUY with a cut PT of EUR 1.00 (old: EUR 2.70) based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=95bb3997013469a20dbcabfdcf336b46
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Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2187406 22.08.2025 CET/CEST
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