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Original-Research: THE NAGA GROUP AG - from NuWays AG
19.12.2025 / 09:31 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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Classification of NuWays AG to THE NAGA GROUP AG
Company Name: THE NAGA GROUP AG
ISIN: DE000A41YCM0
Reason for the research: Preview / Review
Recommendation: BUY
from: 19.12.2025
Target price: EUR 9.50
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Frederik Jarchow
Guidance cut due to subdued market conditions; chg
Earlier this month, NAGA cut its FY25 guidance as a result of ongoing
subdued market conditions.Further, the company announced the implementation
of a reverse stock split. Here is what isimportant:
NAGA cut its sales outlook to EUR 62-66m from EUR 74m previously (vs EUR 63m in
FY24). We hadalready anticipated a shortfall of the guidance (eNuW old: EUR
70m), but the magnitude was a bitsurprising. The main reason for the muted
outlook was according to management the persistently lowvolatility
throughout 2025. Mind you, that volatility is usually the main driver of
number of transactionsand hence volumes. Due to the ongoing low volatility,
number of transaction fell short of expectationsand should now come in at
only 7.6m (eNuW; vs 7.6m in FY24 vs eNuW old: 8.3m). Assuming thatrevenues
per transaction remain rather stable, we now expect sales to come in at EUR
64m.
EBITDA guidance is cut to EUR 3-6m from EUR 12m (vs. eNuW old: EUR 10m, vs EUR 8m in
FY24). Positively, the cost base remained stable and largely aligned with
planned strategic initiatives within 2025.Hence, EBITDA is primarily
affected by the adjusted sales guidance.
Initially, we had expected meaningful growth in 2025 after the transition
year 2024 was mainlycharacterized by integration, automation and efficiency
processes. This expectation was based onthe restart of the company's growth
engine in early 2025, supported by measures such as thecooperation with BVB
(Q4'24) and with Mike Tyson in (Q1'25). Still, we expect the measures
bearingfruit once volatility is normalizing again. Nevertheless and in order
to take a conservative stance, weslightly trimmed our estimates also for
FY26 to EUR 70m in sales (vs eNuW old: EUR 79m) and to EUR 9.5m inEBITDA (vs eNuW
old: EUR 14.9m).
In addition to the guidance cut, management implemented a reverse stock
split at a ratio of 10:1. Given that the share price had fallen well below EUR
1, this step was appropriate to bring the share priceback into a more
"normal" range. A higher nominal share price should also help improve
marketperception and liquidity. Moreover, with the share price now above EUR
1, capital measures are onceagain technically possible.
BUY with a reduced PT of EUR 9.50 based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=855feca6c1d386b4d74b425222028fa6
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2249114 19.12.2025 CET/CEST
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