Verbio SE (von NuWays AG): BUY 31.08.2026, 09:00 Uhr von dpa-AFX Jetzt kommentieren: 0

Original-Research: Verbio SE - from NuWays AG



31.08.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to Verbio SE



     Company Name:                Verbio SE
     ISIN:                        DE000A0JL9W6



     Reason for the research:     Initiation
     Recommendation:              BUY
     Target price:                EUR 41
     Target price on sight of:    12 months
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Jorge Gonzalez



Renewable fuels entering a new cycle; INITIATE WITH BUY



VERBIO is one of Europe's leading integrated biorefineries, converting
agricultural feedstocks and residues into biodiesel, bioethanol, biomethane,
renewable chemicals and higher-value co-products. Its production network
across Germany, the US, Canada and India maximises the value extracted from
every tonne of biomass, while providing diversification across products,
geographies, feedstocks and regulatory regimes.



Following two years of depressed profitability, mainly due to distortions in
the German GHG quota market, weak bioethanol economics and the US ramp-up,
VERBIO has entered a structural earnings recovery. Preliminary FY25/26
EBITDA reached EUR 192m (+EUR 178m yoy). Excluding a c.EUR 20m one-off benefit
from GHG quota inventory write-down reversals, underlying EBITDA recovered
to c.EUR 172m, driven mainly by the normalisation of German GHG quota
economics (eNuW: c.2/3 of EBITDA growth), stronger European bioethanol
spreads and higher US production.



Importantly, the regulatory backdrop is improving as VERBIO completes its
largest investment programme. Higher GHG quota prices increase the value of
the existing European asset base, while rising utilisation in Nevada, the
gradual conversion of South Bend towards integrated ethanol/RNG production
and renewable chemicals provide additional operating leverage. The
integrated bioethanol/biomethane business remains structurally the most
attractive part of the portfolio, combining multiple revenue streams,
favourable long-term demand fundamentals and additional upside from the
monetisation of CO savings.



We believe VERBIO is transitioning from an investment-led to a
monetisation-led phase. In addition to the ramp-up of recently completed
assets, c.0.66m tonnes of accumulated 2024 GHG quotas (eNuW) represent
significant latent value. At our EUR 400/tCO assumption, these imply c.EUR 227m
net cash proceeds, which we expect to be monetised across FY27/28e and
FY28/29e.



The next two months could prove particularly important. FY25/26 results in
late September should provide further detail on the earnings recovery, while
the Capital Markets Day in early October should offer greater visibility on
medium-term earnings potential, capital allocation and the rollout of
renewable chemicals.



We initiate coverage with BUY and a PT of EUR 41, based primarily on average
normalised FCF across FY27/28e and FY28/29e. Assuming EUR 400/tCO GHG quota
prices, below current spot levels, and no exceptionally strong biofuel
margin environment, our forecasts imply an adjusted FCF yield of c.10% in
FY27/28e, rising further in FY28/29e, while the market still assigns limited
value to regulatory normalisation, recently commissioned assets and
renewable chemicals.



You can download the research here:
https://nwr.eqs-cockpit.com/fncls2.ssx?fn=redirect&u=ee847d42a22ce2047aa2aaf747b14bfc
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research



Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2390714 31.08.2026 CET/CEST