Verbio SE (von NuWays AG): BUY 25.09.2026, 09:00 Uhr von dpa-AFX Jetzt kommentieren: 0

Original-Research: Verbio SE - from NuWays AG



25.09.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to Verbio SE



     Company Name:                Verbio SE
     ISIN:                        DE000A0JL9W6



     Reason for the research:     Update
     Recommendation:              BUY
     Target price:                EUR 41
     Target price on sight of:    12 months
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Jorge Gonzalez



FY25/26: Strong cash generation confirms the turnaround



VERBIO reported strong Q4 and FY25/26 results, broadly in line with its
preliminary figures and our estimates. Q4 EBITDA reached EUR 88.2m, compared
with a loss of EUR 8.2m in Q4 FY24/25 and EBITDA of EUR 60.2m in Q3, bringing FY
EBITDA to EUR 193.9m from EUR 14.2m a year earlier. Bioethanol/Biomethane
division was the largest Q4 contributor, generating EUR 55.0m of EBITDA versus
a EUR 26.3m loss a year ago. The segment benefited from strong European
ethanol spreads (eNuW: c. EUR 380/t versus c. EUR 100/t a year earlier), higher
GHG quota prices (up more than 300% yoy to c. EUR 400/t) and improving
utilisation in the US. Biodiesel EBITDA rose 58% yoy to EUR 32.8m. Higher GHG
quota prices were a key driver, while increased volumes and rapeseed oil
purchased in advance at favourable prices helped VERBIO improve its realised
margin despite a much weaker market spread (eNuW: c. EUR 10/t versus c. EUR 90/t
in Q4 FY24/25).



The midpoint of FY26/27 guidance is fully in line with our forecast. VERBIO
expects EBITDA of EUR 210-250m, implying reported growth of 8-29% yoy.
Management expects higher US production, rising biomethane volumes and a
greater contribution from GHG quotas to drive growth (eNuW: c. EUR 60m after
adjusting for extraordinary quota volumes in FY25/26). These gains should be
partly offset by a slight decline in Biodiesel earnings and some easing in
European ethanol spreads.



The underlying growth implied by guidance is stronger than the reported
comparison suggests. FY25/26 EBITDA included a EUR 19m reversal of write-downs
on GHG quotas generated in calendar 2024. Excluding this item, FY26/27
guidance implies growth of approximately 20-43%. Separately, quotas usable
only for the 2027 obligation year remain on the balance sheet at EUR 131m,
with the majority expected to be realised in FY27/28. On our assumptions,
potential proceeds exceed EUR 220m, providing a significant medium-term cash
catalyst.



The return to a dividend highlights the strength of the cash flow recovery.
Operating cash flow reached EUR 165m in FY25/26 and free cash flow amounted to
EUR 78m, allowing net financial debt to fall from EUR 164m to EUR 92m. Including
lease liabilities, net debt stood at approximately EUR 128m, or 0.7x EBITDA.
Against this backdrop, VERBIO has proposed reinstating its dividend at EUR
0.20 per share.



The Capital Markets Day on 8 October should provide greater visibility on
value beyond the near-term recovery. As discussed in our initiation, we
expect further detail on the commercial rollout and medium-term earnings
potential of renewable chemicals. We will also look for an update on the
Nippon Gases CO capture facility at Zörbig, which began operating in
September 2025 and remains in ramp-up. At full utilisation, we estimate that
its CO savings could have a gross value of c. EUR 30m p.a. The partners are
also studying an extension of the cooperation to Schwedt, where we estimate
the potential CO savings could be roughly four times greater, although the
project remains at an early stage. Further clarity on the potential benefit
of US Section 45Z tax credits would provide another catalyst. We reiterate
BUY with a EUR 41 PT, based on average FY27/28-FY28/29 FCFY.



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For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research



Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2405276 25.09.2026 CET/CEST