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Original-Research: Warimpex Finanz- und Beteiligungs AG - from East Value
Research GmbH
25.04.2025 / 13:33 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
Group.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The
result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an
invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
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Classification of East Value Research GmbH to Warimpex Finanz- und
Beteiligungs AG
Company Name: Warimpex Finanz- und Beteiligungs AG
ISIN: AT0000827209
Reason for the research: Preview
Recommendation: BUY
from: 02.04.2025
Target price: EUR 1.14
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Adrian Kowollik
Based on our discussions with management, we believe that Warimpex' (WXF)
2024 results, which will be released on April 29, will be weaker on all
levels than we had previously forecast. Although it finally got rid of all
Russian assets in October 2024 and due to interest rate cuts in the Eurozone
and CEE the environment for real estate companies is getting better,
management believes that 2025E will be a transition year for the company.
Currently, the focus is on increasing occupancy rates and debt repayment.
Also, the company now plans to construct apartments on one of its land plots
in Cracow (Mogilska IV with c. 9,000 sqm, 10 min away from Cracow central
station), which is a booming city with c. 790,000 inhabitants and 2nd
highest sqm apartment prices in Poland (PLN 13,917 on average or EUR 3,314).
Construction activity related to the office projects in Cracow/Chopin
project and Darmstadt/West Yard has not started yet. Given a higher
peer-group-based fair value of EUR 0.68/share (prev. EUR 0.48), our new
12-months PT for Warimpex (50% NNNAV, 50% peer group) equals EUR 1.14
(previously: EUR 1). The main risk factor is the company's net gearing,
which despite being mostly related to long-term debt is still high.
Although we had previously accounted for the one-off loss of EUR 67.4m
related to the sale of Russian assets in October 2024 - in total 53,100 sqm,
c. 36% of WXF's Gross Asset Value until September 2024 - we have decided to
lower our 2024E estimates again by 10.2%-34.2% on revenue and EBITDA level.
They now equal EUR 21.9m (prev. EUR 24.4m) for revenues, EUR 1.8m (EUR 2.8m)
for EBITDA and EUR -82m (EUR -79.8m) for net income. We expect that due to
the negative effect from the one-off loss on equity net gearing as of 31
December 2024 amounted to 194.4% (31/12/2023: 174.4%).
We believe that the decision to build apartments on the Mogilska IV land
plot stems from the fact that apartments can be built and sold relatively
quickly (it usually takes c. 1.5 years to complete a residential real estate
project with a building permit). This would allow Warimpex to generate
significant cash, including from prepayments, which could be used for debt
repayment. Currently, WXF rents own office space in Cracow, Lodz and
Budapest and operates 1 hotel in Darmstadt (in the Intercontinental in
Warsaw, it owns a 50% stake). Warimpex wants to start construction of the
planned new office projects - Chopin in Cracow with c. 20,600 sqm and West
Yard in Darmstadt with c. 11,500 sqm, both already have a building permit -
as soon as market conditions improve.
You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/32346.pdf
For additional information visit our website: https://eastvalueresearch.com/
Contact for questions:
Adrian Kowollik
Email: ak@eastvalueresearch.com
Tel.: +49 30 20609082
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2124556 25.04.2025 CET/CEST
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