Marathon Digital Holdings WKN: A2QQBE ISIN: US5657881067 Kürzel: MARA Forum: Aktien User: Panthera

Wenn die bitcoin reserve der USA startet sind hier Kurse von über 200k schon realistisch finde ich

Wie kommt man denn auf Aussagen wie 250T BTC bis Ende 2025?! Wenn man davon ausgeht, kann man gleich in BTC investieren anstatt das Trauerspiel bei Mara weiter mit zu machen…

My thoughts on $MARA over the next 4 months. Convertible Notes: Subscribers of these notes typically look for a market-neutral or low-risk arbitrage positioning, to profit off things like credit spread, volatility, and equity optionality rather than stock price direction. Hedge funds short the stock when they buy convertible notes, with a simple formula, where the amount shorted is based on the conversion ratio and delta of the embedded optionality. Shares to Short = Principal of Notes × 1/Conversion x Δ Short ratios range typically between 50%-70%. With this formula, as the stock price rises so does delta, funds then increase their short positions (gamma hedging). If the stock price falls, they cover. This exists fluidly in both directions, like a pendulum, but only up to a certain point.. Unwinding typically occurs as the share price rises near or in excess of a delta of 1.0. In this case, shorts cover and flip to a net long position. Using $MARA recent press release, we can do some simple math: $940.5M, conversion 49.3619 shares per $1,000 principal, implying conversion price of $20.26. Assume Delta of 0.6 (60%) Shares to Short = 46.9M x 0.6 = 28.14M Roughly 7% of the float... makes sense why we saw short interest jump from 23% to 30% nearly overnight. As $MARA stock price rises, the delta moves closer to 1, so hedge funds will short ADDITIONAL shares. Conversely, if the stock price falls, delta declines and funds cover/buyback. So the question is, when does $MARA break out of this purgatory of relentless shorting? The practical threshold would exist at roughly 50-75% above conversion price, where the notes end up deep in-the-money, and delta is 0.95+. At this point the delta effectively behaves like a stock, so hedge funds no longer require a short position to hedge. They can convert the notes and hold, or unwind both positions. (Remember the last part) For $MARA, based on the conversion price in their press release, this occurs at roughly $30-$35... this also happens to be 4 year long resistance. Trading range purgatory... So when, if ever, will we see this unfold? When will $MARA finally break out of this trading range? Well, we all know $MARA has had a hardline at 1x NAV. Very rarely if ever did it fall below this level, and if it did it was intraday, and for a very brief moment. We also know that this NAV premium increases slightly with Bitcoin optimism and positive sentiment. They are currently adding 700-800 BTC per month to the HODL via their mining business. This means that by December, their position likely grows to 53,000 BTC. That is mining alone and does not include any spot purchases, which is still a real possibility given their current cash position. So 1x NAV with 53,000 BTC, $30-$35 would require a BTC spot price between 210k-245k. Conclusion? Bitcoin high above 210k-245k triggers a short squeeze above $35. Additionally, any spot purchases, or increase in NAV above 1x between now and then lowers this BTC trigger point significantly. Opinion: this move will coincide with the BTC cycle top, roughly in Nov-Dec 2025. It will be sudden and swift, as I do believe they will unwind BOTH positions, selling shares into the strength. Final thoughts: - If you believe BTC cycle top occurs at around 210k-245k, base case $MARA to $30-$35 as a floor. That level will be a hair trigger. Any increase in BTC, NAV premium, HODL or all three sends this into the stratosphere. Price Targets: Bear Case: $30-$35 (Bitcoin Blowoff top UNDER 250k, NAV premium 1.0x, hair trigger never pulled) Base Case: $52-$65 (Bitcoin Blowoff top at 250k, NAV premium 1.0-1.2x with mild short covering, no new ath is achieved. Hair trigger pulled, some positions unwind, short hedges are added) Bull Case: $83-$132 (Bitcoin Blowoff top at 250k, NAV premium at industry standard 1.5-2.0x. Hair trigger pulled, fueling significant short covering. All positions unwind, no new short hedges required)

hallo pablo es können auch 99k kommen, warum nicht, ist doch eine tolle chance