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VICTORIA GOLD Forum: Community User: Dspax2
Kommentare 17
E
Ehrenmann,
20.11.2019 15:09 Uhr
0
Ist abgeschlossen!
J
Jackstar,
19.11.2019 12:26 Uhr
0
bin grad unschlüssig....die führen grad eine akzienkonsolidierung durch. Aus 15 aktien soll eine werden. So wollen sie mit einem höheren Preis pro Aktie für institutionelle Anleger interessanter werden, oder erst einmal ins Raster fallen.
E
Ehrenmann,
15.11.2019 17:52 Uhr
0
Was haltet ihr von der Aktie?
E
Ehrenmann,
31.10.2019 17:27 Uhr
0
Kgv von 5, wow.
E
Ehrenmann,
17.10.2019 8:26 Uhr
0
Schade, dass es hier wieder so runter ging.
J
Jackstar,
18.09.2019 21:13 Uhr
0
Erster Goldbarren gegossen und -4%....komisch. Vielleicht sind weniger Gold im Boden als erwartet. Aber bis jetzt hab ich noch nirgends genaue Zahlen gesehen.
J
Jackstar,
06.09.2019 11:28 Uhr
0
Kann ich nicht sagen. Wenn die Fördermengen nicht wie erwartet erreicht werden gehts natürlich runter. Ich würde vielleicht den ersten Bericht abwarten.
Allmächtiger,
29.08.2019 8:40 Uhr
0
Puh. Lohnt sich noch ein Einstieg?
J
Jackstar,
20.08.2019 9:46 Uhr
0
Mitte September solls losgehen. Quelle war nen video. Welches ich grad nicht mehr finde. Steigt auch *** Tag für Tag.
J
Jackstar,
12.08.2019 12:56 Uhr
0
Erste Goldfärderung September laut Artikel
J
Jackstar,
12.08.2019 12:55 Uhr
0
Source: Victoria Gold April 2019 Press Release
As such, it's probably reasonable to assume that the share price of VITFF would be trading higher now, if there had not been a cost overrun issue to deal with, which necessitated the company to return back to the equity markets for an additional round of fundraising.
Share Structure and Cash Balance
Currently, Victoria Gold has ~858 million shares issued and outstanding on its registry, which is quite high for a Canadian-listed gold company (even one that is ~fully financed to complete construction).

Source: Victoria Gold May 2019 Financial Statement
Although it's debatable just how bloated Victoria Gold's share structure is (some folks would even argue it's not even all that "bad", relatively speaking, since there are a plethora of ASX-listed gold companies who are worse offenders), by most any accounts, it's certainly not a tight one.
In terms of balance sheet, Victoria Gold had ~C$68 million in cash, to go along with ~$314 million in liabilities (~$230 million in long-term debt), current as of May 31, 2019.

Source: Victoria Gold May 2019 Financial Statement
From the Victoria Gold's latest presentation slides, it looks like the Eagle Gold Project is well advanced, showing a status of 95% completion, with the company hinting that first gold pour is also near imminent (scheduled to occur in September).

Source: Victoria Gold July 2019 Corporate Presentation Slides
So, while the Eagle Gold Project is nearing completion of construction and there is ~C$68 million of cash in the company's treasury (which might look on the surface to be a decent amount on hand for a company that is quite literally only a month away from first gold pour), there is still the very real fear of additional dilution that could take place (via equity raise, in the event the initial commissioning + ramp up process don't go as smoothly as intended), which is a risk that speculators need to consider at this time.
Hedging and NSR
Furthermore, for gold bulls who are interested in the Victoria Gold story for the potential leverage, it might offer up in a bull market for gold, it's worth mentioning that the company won't be able to "ride the wave up" completely unencumbered, as there are hedges in place (40,000 ounces in 2020 and 60,000 ounces in 2021) that needs to be accounted for.

Source: Victoria Gold July 2019 Corporate Presentation Slides
As shown in the slide above, the roof price is C$1,936/oz (~1,463/oz); at this time of writing, the gold price is trading above C$1,936/oz, which means that Victoria Gold "will have to make a payment to Macquarie." However, as noted above, the hedge is only applicable to a portion of Eagle's nameplate capacity (estimated to be ~210k oz/year during Year 1-2), not for the entirety of its annual production output.
In general, the technique of hedging to put a "solid floor" in place can be seen as a prudent strategy to employ for a development company (to better insulate against risks during the crucial start-up phase), but as shown above, they can also go against you in a fast-rising upmarket.
Further, it's worth highlighting that as part of the financing package to secure the capital required to put the Eagle Gold Project into production, Victoria Gold agreed to sell a rather significant 5% Net Smelter Royalty (NSR) to Osisko Gold Royalties (OR) for C$98 million (which will be reduced to a 3% NSR upon delivery of 97,500 ounces).

Source: Victoria Gold March 2018 Press Release
As a consequence of the 5% NSR with Osisko Gold Royalties, the All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC) for the Eagle Gold Project are projected to increase by $62.50/oz, from $638/oz.

Source: Victoria Gold July 2019 Corporate Presentation Slides
Granted, while an increase in AISC by $62.50/oz is quite material, no doubt, it becomes much less onerous of a burden when you've got a strong supportive tailwind at your back (i.e., a gold price ~$1,500/oz), which Victoria Gold could very well find itself most fortunate to be able to work with during its initial start-up phase.
According to the company, the most up to date projection for AISC is to fall below $750/oz.

Source: Victoria Gold July 2019 Corporate Presentation Slides
On paper, anyway, an AISC $750/oz would seem to greatly suggest that Victoria Gold still ought to be able to generate solid free cash flow once in full production (even after accounting for not only the "nasty" royalties, but also for additional costs not contained in the aforementioned AISC figure, such as: interest payments, taxes, working capital, etc.) provided the current favorable operating environment for gold can continue to hold up reasonably well.
Also, not to be forgotten, there is an additional 2% NSR (which will be reduced to 1% once $1 million has been received) "burden" on the Eagle Gold Project, held by Franco-Nevada (FNV).

Source: Franco-Nevada
With all that being said, and despite all the "constraints" in place, for Victoria Gold, there is perhaps more incentive now than ever before (e.g., take advantage and capitalize on a high gold price to rapidly pay down debt) to get the Eagle Gold Project up and running to nameplate capacity as quickly and smoothly as possible, since a profound re-rating could be the reward for such an achievement.
Insider Buying
In terms of aligning themselves with the interests of the average retail speculator, the strong recent insider buying in recent months by the Victoria Gold team has to be seen as encouraging since it shows that the people steering the ship really do believe in the potential of the Eagle Gold Project.

Source: CEO.CA
Putting one's money where their mouth is cannot guarantee future success, of course, but it certainly inspires a lot more confidence than the alternative.
Conclusion
With construction work at the Eagle Gold Project ~95% complete and first gold pour perhaps just one short month away, Victoria Gold is a near-term producer who arguably couldn't have picked a better time to be starting up production.
Currently, the gold price is trading at ~$1,500/oz, and although there are still execution risks involved (mining is never a trivial task, especially during the initial start-up phase, and the company will be attempting heap leaching in a very cold/harsh environment), should Victoria Gold succeed in ramping up The Eagle Gold Project to nameplate capacity in a timely fashion (and without major incident), the leverage and re-rating potential provided by owning shares of VITFF could be immense.
In fact, the company has even *** it a point to highlight the strong share price appreciation witnessed by several different gold companies, over the years, as they successfully transitioned from developer -> producer.

Source: Victoria Gold July 2019 Corporate Presentation Slides
Time will tell whether or not Victoria Gold one day gets added to the list above, but irregardless, when factoring in for the now much improved market environment towards precious metals (which is no doubt being spearheaded by a rapidly advancing gold price into the ~$1,500/oz range), one can deduce that the odds for success have increased profoundly over the last few months in favor of the company.
The Eagle Gold Project aspires to be Canada's next producing gold mine. Now, if Victoria Gold can execute and declare commercial production with little to no drama, shares of VITFF will be a laggard no more.
Disclosure: I am/we are long VITFF, MGDPF, ORZCF.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Quelle: seeking alpha
J
Jackstar,
08.08.2019 10:09 Uhr
0
Im Herbst soll das erste Gold gefördert werden. Gibts einen genauen Termin?
X
Xetra,
16.01.2019 7:51 Uhr
0
Langsam steigt der Kurs während wir mit großen Schritten bei Eagle Richtung Produktion gehen
J
Joko,
21.04.2016 13:37 Uhr
0
Yessssss
I
InFi015c5f621857e71,
19.04.2016 13:38 Uhr
0
jetzt schon ;)
N
Noise,
20.03.2016 22:21 Uhr
0
Auf gleichem sektor falls es euch interessiert: bonterra Ressources Inc. Tipp von einigen Plattformen (auch von dieser). Performed sehr gut und es stehen einige Bohrergebnisse bis zum Sommer an. Ausserdem expandieren die stark und haben weitere Investoren aquiriert. Schaut euch das bei Interesse mal genauer an und bildet eure eigene Meinung. Imho bullish. Trend statistisch wie fundamentalistisch. Regelmäßige news zur zeit. Schön transparent. Könnte was großes werden.
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