ARMOUR RESIDENTIAL Forum: Community User: Met

Vom Yahoo Forum. Seht ihr das ähnlich / gleich? Sorry hatte keine Lust es zu übersetzen. As of 8/31 with company update 9/12 their portfolio value was mentioned at $9.6 Billion. On this their net interest margin was/is something like 2,1% ($9.6 Billion x 2,1%) x 90% = payout to share holders. So roughly $200 Mio is their net interest margin and 90% => $181Mio ./. 133 Mio shares = about $1.32 per share dividend per year => roughly the $1.20 ($0,10/month) they distribute today. However as of Preliminary Financial Estimates 10/12 "only" $7.4 billion were mentioned: "Securities portfolio included approximately $7.4 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities." Thats a significant drop of 23% if I understand this correctly. If the portfolio remains this low and net margin remains at 2,1% the dividend will have to drop down to $1.00/p.a. Assuming they keep up the portfolio at $9.6 Billion and their net margin interest drops by 23% due to higher interest rates on the market, it would also mean a lower dividend to roughly $1 per year or about $0,08/month/share. At a share price of $5 this $1 annual dividend is 20% yield, which is still excellent. (At least for share holders buying at this share price level) For the Q3 numbers reading this... "Monthly cash dividends totaled $0.30 per common share for the third quarter. Estimated distributable earnings (a non-GAAP measure) for the quarter exceeded that amount per share. Our final report of distributable earnings for the third quarter 2022, when available, will include a reconciliation of distributable earnings to the most directly comparable GAAP measure." ...it sounds quite positive. It sounds like that they made more margin which would require them to pay out more than the $1.20 for 2022? Or do I get this wrong? In case the portfolio really dropped by 23% (from $9,6B to $7.4B) AND due to higher interest rates the margin will drop lets say by 25% down to 1,6% then the annual dividend would have to drop down to $0,80 which would mean a dividend yield of 16% at a share price of $5 which is in the range of other REITs and still okay. We will know more on the 24th with the Q3 earnings call.

Wieso das? Sind die langfristigen Aussichten so schlecht? Meine Sorge wären eben fallende Kurse auf lange Sicht oder sogar Reverse Splits.