MICROSOFT WKN: 870747 ISIN: US5949181045 Kürzel: MSFT Forum: Aktien Thema: Hauptdiskussion

im Sog von Now, SAP u a. SAAS...

ASML und einige Chiphersteller auch heute im Minus. Ich bin echt neugierig was an der DUV China Geschichte dran ist. Klar, es wird noch viele Jahre dauern und China wird nicht das ASML-Niveau erreichen. Braucht es aber für die meisten Anwedungen auch gar nicht. Wäre nicht das erstemal in der Geschichte, dass ein Staat technologisch schneller aufholt als gedacht. Dank Wirtschaftsspionnage, reverse engineering (sollte eigentlich nicht möglich sein, aber ist es das wirklich für alle Bereiche und Teile?) und staatlicher Unterstützung. Siehe Autoindustrie (Japan, China...) oder Wettlauf im All mit Sovjetunion.

Jap, wenn man nur wüsste, was sie verlautbaren werden. Es ist doch eigentlich im Grunde sehr vorhersehbar, wie die Kurse reagieren würden: Weniger CapEx, dann eine Rally bei Microsoft und ein Abverkauf bei den Chip-Aktien...oder umgekehrt. So einfach wäre es.

Das macht mir Bauchschmerzen 😭

Schon richtig, ich habe Sorge von den Investitionsausgaben

Das höhere Tief macht Hoffnung....

Zügig wär nice...

Will Microsoft Stock Rebound After Wednesday’s Earnings? Here’s What Truist Sees Marty Shtrubel Jul 28, 2026, 01:44 AM Will Microsoft Stock Rebound After Wednesday’s Earnings? Here’s What Truist Sees Microsoft investors are heading into Wednesday’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings release hoping it can finally reverse what has been a disappointing year for the stock. Shares remain down about 19% year-to-date, and a strong report could provide the catalyst for a rebound. Those hopes, however, are being tempered by heightened uncertainty after Alphabet shares plunged 7% following the company’s latest earnings report. Google’s parent company sparked the sell-off after outlining plans for as much as $205 billion in capital expenditures in 2026, raising concerns over whether and when those investments will generate adequate returns. It remains to be seen if the same fate awaits Microsoft, although Truist analyst Terry Tillman is already preparing investors for a possible increase in capital spending. “Our view on Microsoft is that capex will remain elevated for longer given insatiable industry demand across AI workloads,” the analyst said. In Tillman’s view, the build-out of the agentic and intelligence layers is still at an early stage outside coding, meaning Microsoft and its fellow hyperscalers may need to sustain elevated capital investment for years as they build the infrastructure required to tap Tillman’s estimated $6 trillion TAM (total addressable market) for agentic AI by 2030. The analyst noted that Microsoft disclosed approximately $190 billion in calendar-year 2026 total capital expenditures last quarter, including $25 billion attributable to higher component costs such as memory. That figure would represent 61% year-over-year growth from 2025’s spending. Given the ongoing imbalance between supply and demand, combined with the fact that memory pricing continues to shift, Tillman believes Microsoft’s next update could carry an “upward bias” vs. the prior 2026 capex forecast. Looking ahead to fiscal 2027, he also said his own estimate has increased to $252 billion, compared with the $233 billion consensus forecast. Still, Tillman believes several developments could eventually reverse the negative investor sentiment surrounding hyperscaler capital spending, particularly in Microsoft’s case. Even if the company’s spending remains elevated and exceeds expectations, a slowdown in the rate of growth relative to recent years – and particularly the record growth seen in fiscal 2024 – could help ease concerns. The analyst also believes Microsoft’s ability to maintain one of the strongest balance sheets among mega-cap tech firms, while continuing to generate solid free cash flow even after accounting for “fully loaded capex,” including finance leases, could further reassure investors. Beyond that, Tillman expects sustained heavy investment to translate directly into stronger Azure and AI growth over an extended period – a possibility he believes even more optimistic Wall Street forecasts may be underestimating. If that scenario unfolds, Microsoft could see renewed momentum in both earnings and free cash flow. “Net is that investors should brace for continued elevated capex and some surprises to the upside this earnings season among hyperscalers; however, we believe constructive updates on key metrics in the case of Microsoft (Azure, Copilot, total AI revenue, commercial bookings, commercial RPO, etc.) could increase the visibility into sustained strong Azure and AI business growth, in our opinion,” the analyst summed up. All told, Tillman assigns MSFT shares a Buy, while his $575 price target factors in 12-month share appreciation of ~48%. archive.is/FJEBd#selection-2955.0-3149.1

Microsoft Unveils AI Model for Cybersecurity, Boosting (MSFT) Efforts in Tech Sector GuruFocus News 07/28/2026 03:43 On July 27, 2026, Microsoft Corp announced the launch of its new AI model, MAI-Cyber-1-Flash, aimed at identifying cybersecurity vulnerabilities. This significant development comes as the company intensifies its focus on the cybersecurity sector under the leadership of Hayete Gallot, a former Google executive. What's Behind the News? The introduction of MAI-Cyber-1-Flash is a strategic move for Microsoft as it seeks to enhance its cybersecurity offerings. This model has reportedly outperformed competitors such as Anthropic's Mythos 5 and Google's Cyber 3.5 Flash when integrated with OpenAI's GPT-5.4. CEO Mustafa Suleyman emphasized the model's efficiency, claiming it delivers top-tier performance at 50% lower costs. The model will be integrated into Project Perception, an AI-driven system designed for discovering and fixing security weaknesses, with a preview set to launch on August 3. www.gurufocus.com/news/8981880/micros...Microsoft Unveils AI Model for Cybersecurity, Boosting (MSFT) Efforts in Tech Sector

Die Stimmung verbessert sich mMn wenn die Investitionen nach unten gestrichen werden weil man es nicht mehr muss. Also capex unter 190 mrd und wir gehen hoch so meine Theory, aber halt nur eine Theory.

MSFT Reiterated by Guggenheim -- Price Target Maintained at $586 GuruFocus News 07/27/2026 15:34 On July 27, 2026, Guggenheim maintained a "Buy" rating on Microsoft with a price target set at $586.00, unchanged from prior evaluations. What's Behind the Analyst Rating? Guggenheim analyst John Difucci's reiteration of the "Buy" rating reflects confidence in Microsoft's robust market position and growth potential within the technology sector. The stable price target of $586 suggests that analysts believe the stock has significant upside potential from its current trading price.

Ich sehe das auch so.