Novo Nordisk nach Split WKN: A3EU6F ISIN: DK0062498333 Forum: Aktien User: Coronaprofiteur
The gap is closing $NVO $LLY The latest weekly prescription data (New-to-Brand or NBRx) for the week ending Jan 30 is out, and it confirms the thesis we have seen since the start of the year: momentum has shifted. For the last six months, the bear case on Novo Nordisk was simple: "Lilly is winning 70% of the new patients." That argument no longer holds. The "starter dose" dead heat: - The most important leading indicator for future market share is "starter doses" (new patients entering therapy). • Zepbound starters: 42’164 (+0.5% WoW) • Wegovy starters: 41’867 (+2% WoW) The gap is now less than 300 prescriptions. We are effectively at parity. Zepbound’s share of the starter market has gone down to 50.2%, meaning the market is now a true 50/50 duopoly again, rather than a Lilly monopoly. The Oral catalyst: The driver of this resurgence is clear. 21’153 of those new Wegovy starters were for the Oral pill. Nearly half of all new patients entering the Wegovy ecosystem are bypassing the needle entirely. This validates the "frictionless" thesis: at $149, the pill is unlocking a demographic that Zepbound even with vials simply is not reaching. No cannibalization: Importantly, the data shows that the pill is additive. The high proportion of oral starters combined with the stability of the overall franchise suggests that existing pen users are staying put, while the pill is adding up the new to therapy patients. Novo did not just stop the bleeding, they have successfully deployed a new tool that has neutralized Lilly’s momentum in less than 30 days. Strong funnel momentum for Novo. https://x.com/i/status/2021354664646820213
The gap is closing $NVO $LLY The latest weekly prescription data (New-to-Brand or NBRx) for the week ending Jan 30 is out, and it confirms the thesis we have seen since the start of the year: momentum has shifted. For the last six months, the bear case on Novo Nordisk was simple: "Lilly is winning 70% of the new patients." That argument no longer holds. The "starter dose" dead heat: - The most important leading indicator for future market share is "starter doses" (new patients entering therapy). • Zepbound starters: 42’164 (+0.5% WoW) • Wegovy starters: 41’867 (+2% WoW) The gap is now less than 300 prescriptions. We are effectively at parity. Zepbound’s share of the starter market has gone down to 50.2%, meaning the market is now a true 50/50 duopoly again, rather than a Lilly monopoly. The Oral catalyst: The driver of this resurgence is clear. 21’153 of those new Wegovy starters were for the Oral pill. Nearly half of all new patients entering the Wegovy ecosystem are bypassing the needle entirely. This validates the "frictionless" thesis: at $149, the pill is unlocking a demographic that Zepbound even with vials simply is not reaching. No cannibalization: Importantly, the data shows that the pill is additive. The high proportion of oral starters combined with the stability of the overall franchise suggests that existing pen users are staying put, while the pill is adding up the new to therapy patients. Novo did not just stop the bleeding, they have successfully deployed a new tool that has neutralized Lilly’s momentum in less than 30 days. Strong funnel momentum for Novo. https://x.com/i/status/2021354664646820213
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| 1 | Novo Nordisk nach Split | ||
| 2 | Novo Nordisk |
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