PILBARA MINERALS WKN: A0YGCV ISIN: AU000000PLS0 Forum: Aktien Thema: Hauptdiskussion

In terms of feedstock supply, SQM and Albemarle had laid out plans for increased production rates. But as is often the case with brine evaporation, the process has been hindered by seemingly endless production delays. SQM hit technical obstacles at its new brine conversion facilities that delayed its target capacity of 70,000 tpa LCE by end of 2018 while Albemarle continues to struggle to achieve full capacity at La Negra II. The situation has not been much better in China—the ultimate lynchpin to the lithium bear thesis. Many Chinese brine producers in the Qinghai region had outlined plans to triple or quadruple capacities over the coming 3-4 years. A visit by Benchmark Minerals to these operations, however, has painted a dire picture—the technical challenges related to high magnesium concentrations in the region are nowhere near being comprehensively overcome. Across Qinghai’s 10 producers, only an additional 5,000-10,000 tonnes of lithium product found its way to the market, majority of which failed to reach technical grade specifications. This, in effect, means that much of what came online from the region was either reprocessed thus adding to costs or converted to lithium hydroxide in a bid to meet growing demand for nickel-rich cathode technologies. Although tight credit in China forced some lithium buyers to destock and contributed to the glut, the predicted huge oversupply failed to materialize. Around mid-September, analysts at CRU estimated lithium surplus for 2018 at a relatively mild 22,000 tonnes against a demand of 277,000 tonnes. 2019: A Transition Year So far, there is no clear data or evidence that that the lithium demand narrative is about to slowdown, let alone reverse. On the contrary, certain emerging trends in the industry suggest just the opposite. The biggest near-term driver for lithium demand is the NCM trend. The shift towards cathodes that use huge amounts of lithium hydroxide is already underway, something that is expected to trigger a huge NCM (nickel-cobalt-manganese) ramp up. Benchmark Minerals estimates that 44 percent of mega-and-giga-factories will use lithium as a raw material by 2028 translating into 534,000 tonnes of additional demand. That projection seems to resonate with Elon Musk’s ambitious target to build 20 gigafactories across the globe over the next decade. Miller sees 2019 as the tipping point where demand will eventually outstrip supply starting 2020. Meanwhile, Roskill has predicted that the shift to higher-nickel-cathode materials will push many lithium producers to favor production of lithium hydroxide over lithium carbonate thus taking some pressure off the lithium carbonate supply side. The firm has forecast lithium demand to expand by a brisk 21 percent annual clip between 2018 and 2025 with demand expected to grow 13.5 percent in the current year. But, of course, no lithium bull thesis would be complete without the EV angle. Currently, the EV market accounts for about 47 percent of global lithium demand. That, however, is expected to drastically change as EV penetration rates coupled with the ongoing trend of electric vehicles using larger battery packs that yield longer ranges leading to electric mobility gobbling up 83 percent of lithium supply by 2027. Fastmarkets has predicted EV penetration to hit 15 percent by 2025 from 2 percent currently. EV demand has actually been beating estimates and is constantly being revised upwards to reflect this. The EV explosion is expected to drive a nearly six-fold increase in lithium demand for the forecast period. Key lithium trends to watch in 2019 and beyond Lithium carbonate prices will steady in 2019 before picking up steam starting 2020 Lithium hydroxide prices could soften a little bit after remaining resilient in 2018 China will become less important as a global price trend driver as demand rapidly builds up in other key markets Miller advises investors to keep an eye on new spodumene production, particularly how quickly it can be integrated into the chemical and converter supply chain and turned into either lithium carbonate or hydroxide. A slower ramp is likely to lead to supply constraints and raise prices and vice-versa.

Tsunami of Oversupply? The situation was not helped by Wall Street punters sounding the alarm over the dangers of oversupply … Shares of major lithium producers and explorers including Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (NYSE:SQM), Albemarle Corp. (NYSE:ALB) andOrocobre Ltd (ASX:ORE) received a severe hammering in March after Morgan Stanley forecast that Chilean low cost brine producers could add as much as 200kt per year by 2025, while expansion of China’s and Australia’s hard-rock mines could pump in another half a million metric tonnes over the timeframe. That’s certainly a massive production ramp-up considering that global production in 2017 totaled just over 200kt. In August, Macquarie Research provided the final straw after chiming in with a warning that the market was “sleepwalking into a tsunami of oversupply.” The report put the final nail in the coffin of the decade-long lithium rally—Fastmarkets reckons that prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate in China, by far the world’s largest consumer of high-grade lithium carbonate, tumbled 50.31 percent last year to 75,000-83,000 ($10,885-12,046) yuan per tonne from 158,000-160,000 ($22,932-23,222) yuan per tonne the previous year, as demand waned. But maybe the bear camp rushed their fences this time… While it’s undeniable that the carnage managed to exceed even Morgan Stanley’s decidedly pessimistic outlook for global lithium prices to drop 45 percent by 2021, the fundamentals suggest that the selloff was greatly overdone and such low prices cannot be justified by simple market forces of supply and demand. According to London-based Benchmark Minerals Intelligence senior analyst Andrew Miller, the disconnect between lithium prices and the demand side of the equation has never been bigger. Reality Check A cross-section of materials experts have raised eyebrows at the negative assessment, criticizing the investment analysts for underestimating the rise in lithium demand and the complex nature of lithium mining and production ramps. According to them, both MS and Macquarie failed to account for just how big the gap between supply forecast and actual production can be. And, they might be spot on. Supply expansions in 2018 came in much lower than predicted and the tsunami of oversupply forecast by the likes of Macquarie Research proved to be little more than changing tides in the lithium supply chain. A good case in point is Brisbane-based Orocobre, which has become the poster child for just how challenging new brine mining can be. The company’s Salar de Olaroz project in Argentina took seven years to hit its stride but still came up short of production targets. Meanwhile, run-ins with the courts and regulators coupled with mutual accusations of license violations facing Chile’s lithium giants SQM and Albemarle at their Atacama brine projects further reinforce this point. The screenshot below from Orocobre’s investor slide presentation is a sobering reminder to this reality.

https://www.focus.de/finanzen/boerse/riesiger-investitionsbedarf-sparprogramm-bei-audi-ist-erst-der-auftakt-fuer-die-gesamte-deutsche-autoindustrie_id_10355757.html

Nicht zuviel Wasser in der Atacama Wüste, sondern zu wenig. Ein Post von Barg auf H.C. Barg 22/02/19 This little dash of morning news should put a smile on your faces: Forget the pissy little flood on the Atacama the other day. The real problem about to hit Abemarle and SMQ (the big brine boy's) is not too much water - it is not enough . Chiles water authority (DGA) is about to set severe limits on water extraction on the Atacama due to environmental concerns (lowering water table) and climate change. So Abermale and SMQ are going to be squeezed by a reduction in operational water requirements - meaning production and expansion will be problematic. There is even the possibility that the DGA may not renew their water license; meaning they might have to build a desalination plant, at great expense, to survive (Paraphrased from Bloomberg announcement 22/2/2019 ). If I were a betting man, I'd venture to say that this news will enhance WAs hard-rock deposit desirability to a new level. After all, when the big boys of lithium (Albemale and SMQ) are faced with an impediment, which is costly to overcome - who's name comes to mind as a supply solution to the looming lithium deficit? Could it be PLS for one? Could this be the trigger for a turnaround in the price of lithium? I believe it might, particularly if the water problem for the Atacama coincides with an agreement/end to the Trade war and China's monetary stimulus. Could the stars align? Watch this space. 

0,750 AUD ~ 0,470 EUR

Laut einem Chart „Spezis“ auf H.C. Wahrscheinlich erst hoch auf 0,725 AUD dann nochmal Widerstand bei 0,690 AUD testen danach neuen Aufwärtstrend setzen mit erstem Ziel 0,750 AUD

Nächstes Ziel next Week 0,75 AUD

Ui dat könnte ne schöne Nacht werden..

Habt ihr die Werte auf Übersee gesehen? Albemarle/SQM/Lithium Americas alles dick grün Kommt morgen wieder der goldene Freitag?

Na dann, auf zu neuen Höhen.

Wir laufen in die richtige Richtung. Das zählt ...und wird uns noch ausgezahlt! 💥🍾 "Albemarle optimistisch für die Aussichten für Lithium nach Gewinn im vierten Quartal 20. Februar 2019 VON: REUTERS Albemarle Corp, der weltweit größte Lithiumproduzent, erzielte am Mittwoch einen über den Erwartungen liegenden vierteljährlichen Gewinn und gab für das Jahr 2019 einen optimistischen Ausblick. Er sieht nichts, was die Nachfrage nach dem für die Herstellung von Elektroautobatterien verwendeten weißen Metall verlangsamen könnte. Die Prognose für ein Umsatzwachstum von bis zu 14% in diesem Jahr ergibt sich aus der zunehmenden Sorge einiger Investoren, dass der Wettlauf um Lithium und Batterien und andere Materialien den Markt überfluten und die Gewinne durch sinkende Preise beeinträchtigen könnte. Das in Charlotte, North Carolina, ansässige Unternehmen sagte in einer Pressemitteilung jedoch, es werde "keinen nennenswerten makroökonomischen Gegenwind prognostizieren und die Nachfrageprognosen unserer Kunden seien nicht gesunken". Albemarle sagte, dass es für 2019 einen Umsatz von 3,65 Milliarden US-Dollar bis 3,85 Milliarden US-Dollar erwartet. Seine Aktien stiegen im Handel nach Stunden um 2,6% auf 85 USD. Das Unternehmen erzielte im vierten Quartal einen Nettogewinn von 129,6 Mio. USD oder 1,21 USD je Aktie, verglichen mit einem Nettoverlust von 218,4 Mio. USD oder 1,95 USD je Aktie im Vorjahresquartal. Mit Ausnahme einmaliger Positionen erzielte Albemarle einen Anteil von 1,53 USD. Analysten erwarteten nach Angaben von IBES von Refinitiv einen Gewinn von 1,47 USD je Aktie. Die Lithium-Verkäufe stiegen im Quartal um 18% auf 341,6 Millionen US-Dollar, wobei sowohl das Absatzvolumen als auch die Preise um 4 Prozent im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gestiegen sind. Lithium ist das größte Segment von Albemarle. Zwei kleinere Einheiten verkaufen Industriechemikalien. Es wird erwartet, dass Albemarle am Donnerstagmorgen in einer Telefonkonferenz mit Analysten über seine finanziellen Ergebnisse und Aussichten spricht Quelle: http://m.miningweekly.com/article/albemarle-swings-to-quarterly-profit-on-rising-lithium-sales-2019-02-20/rep_id:3861

Guten morgen, Danke Bullish für die Eckdaten heute morgen

0,82Aud ist durch meine "kaufen Brille" uninteressant da zu teuer :P. Um die 0,60AUD würde ich schon gern nochmal ne ordentliche Schippe drauflegen... leider war meine order immer knapp zu tief. Danke Bull. Ich Check das aber nochmal genau wenn ich Zeit habe. Schönen Tag zusammen.

Ich meine, dass das geschlossen wurde. Es gibt noch ein GAP bei ~0,82 AUD

Haben wir bei 0,58Aud noch ein gap?

ShortQuote liegt die Woche bei ~25% / Tag