SÜDZUCKER WKN: 729700 ISIN: DE0007297004 Forum: Aktien Thema: Hauptdiskussion

Schon wieder zu früh gefreut 🙄

👍🏻 Kauf nochmal nach. 😂

Gestern nachgekauft...sowas passiert mir sonst nie

Man geht wohl davon aus, dass der Preis für Zucker mittelfristig steigen wird

Wow...wo kam denn der Anstieg her?

BARCLAYS stuft Suedzucker auf 'Equal Weight' https://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2021-03/52273457-barclays-stuft-suedzucker-auf-equal-weight-322.htm

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Seit heute dabei... Allen investierten viel Erfolg

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Further positive information for the company was the result of the OPEC+meeting and subsequent significant increase in the oil price. Sugar has strong correlation with oil - which is not only a general commodity style correlation between physical goods. It is due to the role of the sugar cane production in bioethanol industry. If oil price is high, the refineries - particularly in Brasil tend to use the sugar cane to produce ethanol. If oil price is low, it is more profitable for them to produce sugar. As Brasil is by far the greatest exporter of the sugar, it can literally flood the market with it. Given that oil price is going up, the potential sugar will end up as ethanol, which reduce supply of the sugar and increase its price level. Higher price level of the oil will also increase the pace of the change of the bioethanol in the mix in India - from current 5% to 20%: https://www.reuters.com/article/india-ethanol-gasoline-idUSKBN29J2FF For them besides the money it is political thing - they want to reduce the energetic dependency on the import from thrid parties, but surely good price environment will make it more profitable to do. In EU sugar does not fully work in free market environment - we have minimum prices etc. - this is why SZ was having big losses in previous years - but thanks to that it keeps amount of beet suppliers. Beetroot cannot really be stored for long as well, therefore, when the prices of sugar rise sharply, the beet producers are not the main beneficiaries, but the sugar producers. In other industries, often, the sharp rise of required raw material results in depressed margins in their production. This is why in big part in my portfolio I have agricultural business that have big part of their business - farming - they will get the biggest chunk of profits in the new prices environment, but as I said from the processors - sugar business is in very good position as well.

Thanks Milko for your good analysis. It fits completely to my view on the market. I will try to buy even more shares during the next days. That the analysts looking only 2 quarters ahead was not clear to me. So this would then fit to my thought that a first positive report from the company would change their view on the company and the financial model. Great to have a discussion on this channel!

Sorry - I made mistake 100 eur per ton more, not 100mln eur more ;)

Best wishes to my fellow investors. I think, that besides short-term downfalls, caused by the possible slide of the SP500 due to the technological companies awaited reduction of the insane prices. We are in safe. Take a look at the page 8, of the UE reporting for sugar prices: https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/food-farming-fisheries/farming/documents/sugar-price-reporting_en.pdf Long term, EU sugar price was at the level of the import price of the white sugar from other countries, the difference between spot prices and reported - contracted prices is already ~50 EUR, but the import prices are already ~100 EUR above. Given general upward price trend of sugar in the world, its highly unlikely that the import prices will go down - on the contrary, they will likely increase. Current small downfall of prices will likely end soon, as we are getting to the bottom limit of the trend channel. So yeah - I think that next season SZ will likely sell their sugar for about 100mln EUR more than this season. With the same weak volume as in the previous years its 350mln EBITDA more. The deficit in the world sugar production this year (~5.5 mln ton) is too big, to have possible change of the pricing environment. Furthermore, India wants to drastically increase the amount of ethanol in the gasoline mix - this is another several millions of tones of additional demand in the next 2-3 years. We just need to have some patience. It seems as well, that analyst are very cautious and they do not look forward more than 2 quarters - otherwise, they would have to price in next year possible contracting price increase and they would have to set the fair value of the company to the stock price of at least 17 EUR. Cheers my fellows!

Ja, das stimmt. Die 14 knacken wir nur mit einer positiven Meldung, die in die Bewertungsmodelle geht. Wenn wir das haben, dann fällt die 14 und der Weg nach oben ist offen. Wenn die Meldung kommt, dann imsteht die 14 nur kurz und die Aktie geht auf mehr. Mich wundert jedoch wie ruhig es von den Analysten ist.

So ist es aber die 14 muss erst mal geknackt werden ,ist ein Zäher Wiederstand. 😉👍

Ehrlich gesagt bin ich nicht unzufrieden. Die Aktie erholt sich doch schön, in kleinen Schritten, aber nachhaltig. Wenn die jeden Tag 2-3% macht, bin ich mehr als happy. Aus meiner Sicht braucht es jetzt einen positiven Analystenkommentar oder gute Daten aus dem Unternehmen. Eine gute Meldung müsste eigentlich bald kommen. Meine Analyse: Der Zuckerpreis steigt schön, das muss nun bald mal durchschlagen. Aufgrund der Erntedaten sollte der Preis auch nicht so schnell fallen. Außerdem steigt der Ölpreis, was sich sehr positiv auf CropEnergies Bioethanol GmbH auswirken dürfte. Da Covid und Lockdown weiter verlängert ist, dürfte das auch weiterhin eine positive Auswirkungen auf das dritte Standbein Fertigpizza&Co haben. Von daher ist die Aktie aus meiner Sicht komplett unterwertet. Es braucht nun eine positive Meldung aus dem Unternehmen oder von Analysten und der Kurs bewegt sich im Katapult. Mein Kursziel ist 17 - 18 EUR.