US 30 WKN: CG3AA2 ISIN: US2605661048 Forum: Indizes Thema: Hauptdiskussion

ECB working paper examines “risk shocks” originating from the US, China and globally: China’s footprint in global financial markets https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2861~8377c4b063.en.pdf

Markte-implied probability of a recession https://www.isabelnet.com/market-implied-probability-of-a-recession-starting-within-1-year-and-market-implied-probability-of-being-in-a-recession/

Wahrscheinlichkeit für US-Rezession über 60 Prozent https://www.institutional-money.com/news/maerkte/headline/anlagestratege-wahrscheinlichkeit-fuer-us-rezession-ueber-60-prozent-228857

Since When Does a Slowing Economy Mean Risk On? While it might not be noticeable on the surface, most of the S&P 500 is already in a bear market. Of the S&P ‘s 503 companies, 308 are trading more than 20 per cent below their peak: they represent 38 per cent of the blue-chip Index’s market cap. Nearly half of Index constituents are off more than 30 per cent from their peak. While deteriorating growth is not a bullish catalyst, most stocks appear to have already priced in a recession. https://cressetcapital.com/post/since-when-does-a-slowing-economy-mean-risk-on

Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index Loosening https://matttopley.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/1-2.png

Fitch Ratings-27 November 2023: Fitch Ratings’ subprime auto ABS 60+ delinquency index reached a record high https://www.fitchratings.com/research/structured-finance/weaker-issuer-volume-growth-affects-subprime-auto-abs-delinquency-index-27-11-2023

Economics Benchmarks 2023: Economic growth and inflation are most-forecast variables https://www.centralbanking.com/benchmarking/economics/7960314/economic-growth-and-inflation-are-most-forecast-variables

Money Market Funds, Large CDs, Small CDs All Surged: Americans Figured it Out https://wolfstreet.com/2023/11/24/money-market-funds-large-cds-small-cds-all-surged-americans-figured-it-out/

Small Bank Deposit Outflows Continue As Fed Bailout Fund Usage Jumps To Another New Record High https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/small-bank-deposit-outflows-continue-fed-bailout-fund-usage-jumps-another-new-record-high

Your “Fake” Stock Market Gains… are stock market gains fake? https://investorplace.com/2023/11/your-fake-stock-market-gains/

Mezzanine finance revealing another weak spot in the U.S. economy: According to The Wall Street Journal, there have been 62 foreclosure notices on mezzanine loans and other high-risk loans from January to October this year. This figure represents more than double the total for all of 2022, marking what could potentially be the highest annual total in history. The distressing increase in mezzanine loan foreclosures provides a more immediate gauge of the real estate sector’s distress than traditional mortgage foreclosure rates. As the foreclosures mount, the ripples will spread. https://rogermontgomery.com/mezzanine-finance-revealing-another-weak-spot-in-the-u-s-economy/

ECB Financial Stability Review https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/financial-stability/fsr/html/ecb.fsr202311~bfe9d7c565.en.html

recession: economic output composite index vs lei https://www.isabelnet.com/recession-economic-output-composite-index-vs-lei/

LEI for the U.S. Declines Again: The index of leading economic indicators (LEI) has recorded its 19th consecutive monthly decline. https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators

Smaller US banks face unequal real estate risk: Smaller US banks are more exposed than larger ones to “looming” real estate risks, research published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis says. https://www.centralbanking.com/central-banks/financial-stability/7960273/smaller-us-banks-face-unequal-real-estate-risk-paper-says