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Original-Research: SMARTBROKER HOLDING AG - from GBC AG
Classification of GBC AG to SMARTBROKER HOLDING AG
Growth pushed back, 2026 earnings outlook improved On 30 October 2026, Smartbroker Holding AG adjusted its guidance for the 2026 financial year by way of an ad hoc announcement. The adjustment pushes customer growth back into 2027 but raises the earnings range for 2026. Our previous EBITDA estimate of EUR 0.50 million sits exactly at the midpoint of the new range, whereas our revenue estimate of EUR 70.00 million is at the upper end. New customers: The new target essentially extrapolates the trend seen since March. After more than 14,000 new customers in January and February, fewer than 17,000 were added between March and June, or around 4,200 per month. For the second half of the year, the guidance implies around 4,000 new customers per month, meaning that a pull-forward effect from the state-subsidised retirement savings account (Altersvorsorgedepot) is no longer assumed. According to the company, investor restraint did not ease even after the terms of the retirement savings account were presented in September, as many prospective customers are postponing opening an account until the subsidy starts in January 2027. The Management Board therefore expects largely linear development through to year-end, with only a slight seasonal uptick in the fourth quarter. Earnings: The higher EBITDA range reflects lower marketing and customer acquisition costs, as management has stated that it will not buy growth at excessive acquisition costs. At around EUR 160 per new customer, 24,000 new customers in the second half would result in acquisition costs of around EUR 3.8 million; together with the EUR 4.87 million incurred in the first half, this gives around EUR 8.7 million for the full year, compared with the planned EUR 12.0 million. The fact that the range was raised by only EUR 0.5 million is likely also due to the EUR 2.0 million lower revenue midpoint. In addition, we assume that part of the savings will be channelled into pre-launch marketing for the retirement savings account in the fourth quarter (GBC AG assumption). Revenue: Besides the lower number of new customers, a somewhat weaker Media business is weighing on revenue, although the segment still grew by 6.7% in the first half. Trading activity among existing customers has calmed after a very strong first quarter but, according to the company, remains high. The midpoint of the new range implies a year-on-year revenue decline of around 11% for the second half of 2026, which also reflects the complete loss of PFOF (payment for order flow) revenue (phased out from March 2026, statutory ban since 1 July 2026). Retirement savings account: The key catalyst remains intact but has shifted entirely into 2027. Existing customers can already apply for the account in the app, the state subsidy starts on 1 January 2027 and the industry expects several million new contracts in 2027. Marketing is funded by the credit line of up to EUR 20 million and the savings in acquisition costs. Product and insider purchase: With the Smartbroker+ Trader, enhanced charts, all order types offered by the connected trading venues and account powers of attorney, the company has significantly broadened its platform for active investors. CEO André Kolbinger bought shares worth EUR 247,200 at an average price of EUR 8.24 on 21 October 2026; we see this as a signal that management considers the current share price attractive. Forecasts We are lowering our 2026 revenue forecast to EUR 67.50 million (previously: EUR 70.00 million), in line with the midpoint of the new range. We are leaving our EBITDA forecast unchanged at EUR 0.50 million and consider the upper end of EUR 2.00 million achievable given disciplined marketing spending. EBIT and net income therefore also remain unchanged. We are confirming our forecasts for 2027 and 2028. Due to the lower base, implied revenue growth for 2027 rises from 18.6% to 23.0%. We consider this achievable, as pent-up demand should translate into new account openings once the subsidy starts in January 2027, and the broader platform supports the monetisation of existing customers. The risk is therefore now concentrated in the first quarter of 2027. Should demand for the retirement savings account fall short of expectations, our 2027 forecasts would need to be reviewed. New customer numbers at the start of the year are therefore the key operating indicator to watch. Valuation With EBITDA unchanged, the lower 2026 revenue forecast has no material impact on fair value. Based on our DCF model, we confirm our price target of EUR 17.80 and our BUY rating. You can download the research here: 20261105_Comment_Smartbroker_EN Contact for questions: GBC AG Halderstraße 27 86150 Augsburg 0821 / 241133 0 research@gbc-ag.de ++++++++++++++++ Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,5b,7,11). Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter: https://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung Hinweis zu Issuer-Sponsored Research: Vorliegende Researchstudie ist Issuer-Sponsored Research und wurde in Übereinstimmung mit dem EU-Verhaltenskodex (EU Code of Conduct) für Issuer-Sponsored Research erstellt. +++++++++++++++ Completed: 05/11/2026 (10:30 am) First distribution: 05/11/2026 (12:00 pm)
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2429220 05.11.2026 CET/CEST