Lithium Americas Argentina WKN: A4111M ISIN: CH1403212751 Forum: Aktien User: BluePearl

hier noch was neues von JYLee auf X: I've been getting questions on the #lithium price pullback and market balance.. so here are some broad thoughts and analyses: Demand: - Iran war is massively stimulating switch to EVs. EV sales +90-160% in many countries YoY Apr 2026. Last year's headlines were doom & gloom about "slowing EV sales". In reality, BEVs+PHEVs were 20.7m units, pretty healthy. This year I forecast a re-acceleration in EV sales - lithium use +210kt LCE YoY. - BESS growth is pretty insane. Last year installations/shipments were ~320/500GWh. This year it's looking like ~500/850GWh. FYI 850GWh --> ~600kt LCE used in those cells so this segment alone might consume 30% of lithium supply this year. - E-Trucks: Grew 180% (!!) YoY in China last year. More broadly, the Class 4-8 segment represented 5% (86kt LCE) of lithium supply last year and it's just starting to go up the steep part of the S-curve globally. If your analyst doesn't have this in his model, he's missing 150kt LCE use this year. - Overall, global lithium demand grows from 1.5Mt last year to 2.0Mt in 2026, a 500kt LCE jump. Supply: - Mine restarts: To this year's supply, Bald Hill adds 8kt LCE. Ngungajoo adds 10kt. Finniss adds 10kt. Small-ish vs the demand growth. - Mt Holland "doubling capacity": Won't happen until 2028. - CATL Jianxiawo mine: Even if it turned on today, it'd produce only 30kt this year. Less considering ramp-up. And there's a cow or two to relocate if recent videos are to be believed. 😉 - Supply growth has been severely constrained in the last two years as companies could not get financing, or built slower. This WILL be felt in 2026 and 2027. Market Balance: - I see a deficit this year growing to 2030. Much of this is based off BESS growth to 1.76TWh (+17% from my prev forecast) as countries realize they want to reduce natural gas imports dependence. I'm also pounding the table on E-Trucks here. Watch this space. - I respect Benchmark's gutsy call for a 2027 surplus. I disagree though. They have been pretty conservative on demand forecasts and I think this year will surprise many analysts.