Lucid Group Forum: Community User: voodoo

https://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/zahlenvorlage-lucid-aktie-gewinnt-tesla-rivale-lucid-kann-erwartungen-schlagen-ceo-geht-14264207

https://www.tipranks.com/news/the-fly/lucid-group-options-imply-13-7-move-in-share-price-post-earnings

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/25/lucid-ceo-peter-rawlinson-steps-down-ev-maker-plans-to-double-production.html

https://ir.lucidmotors.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lucid-announces-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2024-financial

Q4 und Ausblick für 2025

https://ir.lucidmotors.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lucid-announces-ceo-transition

Marc Winterhoff wird neuer CEO.

4

4

Heute unter 2?

https://www.electrive.net/2025/02/25/lucid-bestellt-batterie-graphit-bei-syrah/

Bin kurz raus und dann viel zu früh wieder rein. Ergebnis ist das selbe.

Wir hätten damals beim Allzeit High rausgehen müssen. Befürchte bei dem Geldbedarf von Lucid geht der Kurs event. noch weiter runter. Hinterher ist man halt immer schlauer. Damals raus und bei Kursen um 2 Euro mit einem Teil wieder rein. Aber nein man hält und schaut zu wie der Kurs nach unten dümpelt. Ärger mich immer noch über mich selbst.

Das Preisziel ist schon fast frech... https://eletric-vehicles.com/lucid/analyst-cuts-lucids-price-target-to-1-13-ahead-of-q4-earnings-results/ https://www.benzinga.com/tech/25/02/43907447/lucid-awards-limited-edition-lucid-air-sapphire-with-lavender-finish-to-winner-of-saudi-cup-2025 https://seekingalpha.com/news/4412540-lucid-q4-earnings-on-deck-what-to-expect https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lucid-lcid-q4-earnings-expect-131125945.html

Stock Forecast Lucid’s stock (LCID) trades at $2.82 as of mid-February 2025, down from a 2021 peak of $58.05. Its market cap hovers around $8 billion, reflecting both its potential and its precariousness. Here’s where it might head: Short Term (2025-2026) The Gravity rollout could spark optimism, especially if early sales exceed the Air’s 6,000-unit 2023 tally. Analysts’ consensus price target sits around $3.18-$4.95 for the next 12 months, suggesting a 13%-75% upside from today’s price. Deliveries rose 70% year-over-year in 2024, and if this momentum holds, LCID could test $5 by late 2025. However, persistent losses and a potential equity raise could cap gains or trigger dips. I’d peg it at $4-$6 by 2026, barring a major catalyst like a new partnership. Medium Term (2030) By 2030, Lucid’s fate hinges on scaling production and cutting costs. If the midsize vehicle launches successfully and Saudi demand kicks in, some forecasts—like CryptoRank’s $41.36 or Finanzerr’s $50—aren’t implausible, implying a 15-20x jump. This assumes profitability and 50,000+ annual deliveries, both tall orders. More conservatively, if Lucid stabilizes as a niche luxury brand or supplier, $10-$15 feels realistic, aligning with a $25-$35 billion valuation. A PIF buyout, as some X users predict, could also occur if losses mount, flattening the stock’s trajectory. Long Term (2040-2050) Visionary forecasts of $300-$800 by 2040-2050 (e.g., Finanzerr) assume Lucid becomes a Tesla-like juggernaut, dominating EVs globally. This requires flawless execution, mass-market penetration, and a transformed energy business—possible but speculative. A $50-$100 range by 2040 seems more grounded if it survives and grows steadily, reflecting a mature $100-$200 billion company. Bankruptcy remains a risk if cash dries up and Saudis balk. Bottom Line Lucid has the tech and backing to carve a niche, but its financials scream caution. I see it climbing modestly to $5-$6 in the next couple of years if Gravity sells well, with a shot at $10-$15 by 2030 if it turns a corner. Beyond that, it’s a high-stakes bet—either a breakout star or a slow fade. For now, it’s a watchlist candidate for patient risk-takers, not a slam-dunk buy. What do you think—bullish or bearish?

Challenges Financially, Lucid is bleeding cash. In 2023, it reported a net loss of $2.83 billion on just $595 million in revenue, and Q2 2024 saw another $643 million loss. This cash burn, driven by high production costs and scaling efforts, is unsustainable without frequent capital injections. Production and delivery numbers, while improving (8,428 vehicles produced and 6,001 delivered in 2024 per recent reports), remain modest compared to rivals like Tesla or even Rivian. Excess inventory—over 2,400 vehicles unsold in 2023 alone—hints at demand struggles, though 2024’s delivery uptick suggests some recovery. Competition is fierce, with Tesla dominating the luxury EV space and legacy automakers like Ford and GM ramping up their offerings. Macro factors, like potential EV tax credit rollbacks under a Trump administration, could further dampen demand. Opportunities The Gravity launch could be a game-changer if Lucid executes well, tapping into the SUV-crazed market. Plans for a sub-$50,000 midsize vehicle by 2026, starting production in Saudi Arabia, aim to democratize its brand and boost volume. Saudi backing not only ensures funding but also positions Lucid to dominate the Middle Eastern EV market, a region eager to pivot from oil. If Lucid can pivot to a Tier 1 supplier role, as some speculate, it might stabilize revenue without needing to outpace Tesla in direct sales. Risks The cash burn rate is the elephant in the room. With $3.5 billion in cash reserves as of mid-2024, Lucid may need another equity raise by 2026, diluting shareholders further. Its inability to achieve profitability—losing hundreds of thousands per car sold—casts doubt on its long-term viability absent a radical turnaround. Smaller EV players like Fisker have already folded; Lucid’s survival hinges on execution and Saudi patience.