Sezzle Inc Registered Shs WKN: A3EGAB ISIN: US78435P1057 Kürzel: SEZL Forum: Aktien Thema: Hauptdiskussion

Sezzle: Facing Deep BNPL Repricing Jul. 04, 2025 11:09 AM ETSezzle Inc. (SEZL) StockSEZL Moretus Research 712 Followers 5 Share Save (12min) Comments (10) About this article Ticker Analyst rating STRONG SELL Price at publication $180.50 Last price $148.63 Change since publication -17.66% S&P 500 change since publication 0.34% Days since publication 7 Summary We rate Sezzle 'strong sell' with a $120 PT, citing severe repricing risk as macro and regulatory headwinds intensify for high-multiple fintechs. Despite robust recurring revenue and above-consensus EPS, SEZL’s premium multiple is unsustainable amid rising compliance costs and tightening state-level BNPL regulation. Multiple compression is likely as sector medians reset below 30x P/E, and SEZL’s scarcity premium leaves little margin for macro or credit missteps. While upside exists if execution and credit outperform, risk/reward is heavily negative; we recommend avoiding or reducing exposure as repricing gravity resumes. BNPL Buy now pay later online shopping concept. B4LLS Repricing Risk In BNPL We initiate coverage on Sezzle Inc. (NASDAQ:SEZL) with a Strong Sell rating and $120 PT. Sezzle Inc. operates a digital BNPL platform that allows consumers in the US/CAD to split purchases into four interest-free installments online and offline. Its rapid growth, driven by a pivot to recurring revenue and an enterprise merchant segment, puts it at the center of this market’s recalibration. Despite consensus optimism (SEZL has been a perpetual upside surprise and our FY26E EPS of $4.60 is 8.3% ahead of the Street), we believe investors are overlooking a fundamental premise shift in the macro and regulatory backdrops for high-multiple fintech. Valuations that once supported >53x forward P/E for names with rapid transaction volume growth and robust unit economics (70% margin; credit losses now controlled in the 2.5–3.0% range) made sense in the low-rate, free-capital regime that has passed. Today, persistent real rates and unprecedented state-level regulatory escalation signal an ongoing clampdown on multiple expansion, rising compliance costs and operational friction, especially as New York’s BNPL statute sets a precedent. Peer median benchmarks for payments and BNPL signal a far lower sustainable valuation anchor, and our justified 26x FY26E P/E implies a 31% downside, even assuming high execution. Subscription monetization and buybacks offer some durability, but a macro or credit surprise to the upside that would drive a rapid snap-back is unlikely. We see R/R as heavily skewed negative as repricing gravity reasserts and the stock leaves little margin for error on macro.