THYSSENKRUPP WKN: 750000 ISIN: DE0007500001 Forum: Aktien Thema: Hauptdiskussion

Ich bleib dabei: der thyssen Organismus wird nur glänzen, wenn man die kranken Organe abtrennt. Danach sieht es momentan nicht aus

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4661900-thyssenkrupp-remains-difficult-but-with-a-potential-long-term-upside

"3Q23 is the latest quarter we have here. Like before, a large part of thyssenkrupp is in the process of transformation, so the way that the segments, including Material services, industrial components, Steel Europe, Multi-tracks, and others look today, may not be the way they look in a few years or even just one year. The group is capable of annual sales of over €40B during good times, with an operating income of above €2B. This is far from the best margin in the industry, but it's still decent if the company was able to keep this mostly stable - which it unfortunately currently is not. in 3Q23/9M, the company saw a margin improvement and actual positive free cash flow - at least prior to adjustments for M&A. Because the company is in the midst of a transformation, those M&A processes and activities are going to have fairly heavy impacts here. Performance and restructuring initiatives continue both costing capital, as well as generating savings. The company's FCF was slightly positive during 22/23 before M&A, with the target being that the company wants significant, pre-M&A FCF. Each of the company's expansive segments has clear profitability and return targets."

"However, I believe it fair to say that the company is a long way from realizing these. This can be, I believe, confirmed with the company's target of "paying a dividend", or dividend payment being "a clear target for thyssenkrupp". Still, there are positives for the company, even if current trends do not look all that encouraging. TK managed to IPO Nucera, and this was one of the largest IPOs in all of Europe in 2023, with an initial market cap of €2.5B, and TK retaining a 50%+ management/majority stake in the company. In doing this, TK does a similar process to Siemens, where it spun off many businesses, but retained ownership of them. 3Q23 sales came in at €9.6B, realizing a respectable run rate, and the company generated both positive adjusted EBITDA and EBIT, with significant pre-M&A FCF of almost €350M, an increase of over €750M. The journey TK is on is a long one, and it will still take years, as I see it. But at the same time, TK has zero debt, it has an almost 40% equity ratio, and its backing by listed companies like Nucera and Elevator adds to the appeal here. The effects from the Nucera IPO are not yet included in the balance sheet for 3Q23 either (Source: thyssenkrupp 3Q23). Most importantly, thyssenkrupp delivered according to plan. Price normalization in the materials business is ongoing, and auto is seeing improved demand. On the other hand, several of the company's segments are seeing negative price normalizations from last year's highs, and restructuring costs and performance initiatives continue to weigh things down, leading to a 51% and 66% decline in EBIT and EBITDA on an adjusted basis, respectively. The outlook for the market across the world, with the exception of some segments in Europe, is actually pretty positive, as most of them are expected to grow by 1-5% or even higher than 5% (Source: thyssenkrupp IR). However, due to trends and difficult comps, TK is still expecting a significant decrease in YoY sales, below €1B in adjusted EBIT which would be less than half of that of YoY, and probably more than a 50% drop in adjusted EBITDA as well. It is these things that are, despite successful execution on the planning and restructuring side, weighing thyssenkrupp down, because there is very little that the company can do about these trends. The company argues its highest-order priority target was delivered - pre-M&A FCF into positives - but to me, this was almost a given with macro trends as they currently are."

"Hitting guidance is obviously important. But so is, I believe, clear continued upside and some sort of timeframe when we can expect earnings to really turn around. As of right now, that's something that I believe is lacking for this company. Let's look at the risks and upsides for thyssenkrupp. Risks & Upsides There are execution risks to thyssenkrupp that should not be underestimated. TK is committed to essentially restructuring the company in its operational entirety. Not only will that continue to take time, it will take resources, and in this (or any) macro is fraught with risks. A historical look-back will show you that thyssenkrupp, since the GFC, has really not done anything that by its shareholders from a return perspective could be considered "impressive", unless you consider losing investor money most of the time to be impressive. The lack of visibility here makes this a speculative investment that probably should be avoided by many investors unless they are in it for the very, very long haul. That's What thyssenkrupp can give you."

Im Capital gab es jetzt eine Analyse zu TK. Lopez braucht ein Wunder um die Aufspaltung zu verhindern. Irgendwann holt die Realität einen wieder ein. Siehe Karstadt.

Der Aufsichtrat bekommt deutlich mehr Geld und die Aktionäre verzeichnen nur Verluste. Wie in der Politik.

Was gibt’s für News ist ja im Plus 🙏

https://de.marketscreener.com/kurs/aktie/THYSSENKRUPP-AG-436698/news/Fitch-stellt-Bonitatsbewertung-von-Thyssenkrupp-ein-45692056/ So eine Überschrift - auch wenn sie nicht unmittelbar Schlimmes zu bedeuten hat - gefällt mir gar nicht

Die Aktie schwankt seit über 1 Jahr zwischen ca.6 und 7 €. Damit handle ich und habe bis jetzt gute Erfolge

Geht ja mal ins Plus 🤷‍♂️

Immer und immer die gleiche 💩

Wie alt bist du 😂

Ich bleibe bis 16 €