HELLOFRESH SE INH O.N. WKN: A16140 ISIN: DE000A161408 Kürzel: HFG Forum: Aktien Thema: Hauptdiskussion
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Indeed, for us to deliver on our adjusted EBITDA ranges, we need to have, say at a minimum EUR 24 million adjusted EBITDA improvement year-on-year in H2, which is like a EUR 10 million-EUR 12 million minimum per quarter. Why we are confident about it, if we look at what we expect for Q3, I always like to give how we see the coming quarter coming. On top line, we can't, because it's going to rely a lot on the back-to-school season and the conversion. On bottom line, we have a pretty good visibility. We see this, I would say EUR 10 million-EUR 20 million improvement coming already in Q3. We believe that in Q4, there is really the possibility with a good campaign coming to achieve the same level. So we feel confident that both quality of conversions, continued discipline on marketing ROI, which will continue, but as well, a lower impact of product investment, which we've started that in H2 of last year and we continued in H1 of this year, is going to have a lower year-on-year effect than what we have seen for the first part of the year.
2026 outlook The Company reconfirms the €375–425 million constant currency AEBITDA outlook for the Group for 2026 in full. The revenue performance on group level in constant currency is trending towards the bottom end of the 2026 range. So, they believe now it will end up below midpoint. Let's hope the back to school action is an unexpected success in terms of new (loyal) customers.
From the presentation: At the midpoint of the AEBITDA guidance range for 2026, FCF is expected to remain positive for the full year, with more favorable H2 2026 vs. H2 2025. This does not sound good, as they are tracking for the lower end of the guidance range. Slightly negative FCF would not be a disaster, but it won't lure in new investors either. (Pardon my Dutch)
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