Troika Hauptforum Forum: Community User: Hansmuller
TRKA - Here is what I think is going on. I’m a smooth brain, but I’m no potato. 2022 - TRKA establishes Series E. They need to either issue 200M+ shares and dilute or they pay up $50M cash and don’t issue shares. TRKA files to S-1 to establish the new shares just in case they decide to go the dilution route. Through 2022 - TRKA stock tanks. This is mostly due to short sellers seeing this impending 200M dilution and attacking them on this weakness. TRKA elects to wait it out and not dilute. As of Sept 30th - TRKA had $70M of cash and receivables on their balance sheet. This is not nothing…. End 2022 - Stock is down at rock bottom prices. It would be death to dilute here. Also End 2022 - Jefferies starts to see the shit storm brewing in the short market for the stock. Jefferies, who brokered the GME ATM offering sees a similar shit storm brewing here. They begin to engage with TRKA. Feb 2023 - It’s now been 5 months since TRKA reported $70M in liquid and near liquid assets. If they’re doing as well as they say they’re this could be substantially higher. Let’s say $100M. Mid-Feb - Jefferies / TRKA come up with a plan. TRKA taps into their $100M cash to buyout the Series E. Let’s say this happens on 2/13 2/17 - TRKA after buying out the Series E withdraws the S-1s for these shares. This is on a Friday. -THIS LIGHTS A FUSE WITH THE SHORT MARKET- Their whole thesis relies on 200M stock dilution. That is now gone. 2/22 - Now this is where gasoline gets poured on the fuse. Jefferies / TRKA collaborate to fix capital structure. This is an atomic bomb for the short hedge funds. Look up Jefferies role with GME. After GME spiked and the squeeze took place Jefferies brokered a S-3 at the money offering. This gave GME cash to survive and Jefferies made a boat load. My crystal ball: This will squeeze, maybe it shoots to $10, 15, 20…. After this takes place TRKA/Jefferies will announce an ATM at these high prices. Yes this will be dilution but FAR FAR less than what it would have been with the Series E. This will give TRKA all the money they need to replenish their cash and pay off Blue Torch. Jefferies will make a shit ton like they did with GME. Why else would a company like Jefferies be messing with a $30M Mkt Cap company with 200 employees? This is gonna go boom boom. Have fun all. Not financial advise
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