VONOVIA WKN: A1ML7J ISIN: DE000A1ML7J1 Kürzel: VNA Forum: Aktien Thema: Hauptdiskussion

Deine Rechnung ist falsch. 2,5k ist der rechnerische fair value, beim derzeitigen Kurs kaufst du den qm aber für ca 700€ nach Abzug der Verbindlichkeiten

er vergisst vor allem, dass er mit dem Erwerb einer Vonovia Aktie keinen einzigen qm Wohnraum bekommt. kann ja mal zu Vonovia gehen und fragen, ob er für seine 3 Aktien bei einigen der Wohnungen ins Grundbuch eingetragen wird :D

Drivers of organic rent growth (Vonovia Q1 2025 results presentation) As such, given the extension of rent regulations to 2029, investors are looking at a circa 7% unleveraged return (4.1% cap rate +2.9% rent growth under rent regulations), with the remaining 1.4% (1% from modernization and 0.4% from new construction) more dependent on future capex for modernisation and new construction. As explained in the Analyst & Investor Daysection, with leverage, these returns increase to approximately 13%, with the caveat that 2/3 of returns are dependent on valuation gains. I reckon that the 13% potential return in the long term is quite attractive, especially given Vonovia's focus on residential assets, which are stable throughout the economic cycle. Indeed, at the current valuation, I think it is quite likely that Vonovia outperforms European large-cap retail and office REITs, which traditionally offer higher returns given their larger economic cycle sensitivity. As such, I confirm my Buy rating for Vonovia. Risks Despite 1% of rate cuts by the ECB so far in 2025, Vonovia's high leverage remains the key risk in the investment case. Indeed, we note that 63% of enterprise value is funded with debt. In addition, Vonovia's current cost of debt of 1.9% is well below the marginal cost of long-term debt, which currently stands at ~3.8%. This will result in muted cash flow growth in the years ahead, even as robust rent growth continues. The silver lining is that Vonovia is diversifying its debt structure, issuing low-couponconvertible bonds that offer returns of 1.25–1.75% for 5-7 years. This, together with opting for shorter debt maturities, may help mitigate the impact of debt refinancing over the medium term. The other risk, which I already commented on above, is that roughly 2/3 of returns depend on valuation gains, which are uncertain in time and magnitude. Investors can mitigate this risk by combining their Vonovia position with commercial REITs, which typically offer high current income but lower capital gain potential. Conclusion I estimate that Vonovia will report an EPRA NTA of €45.75-46.00/share when it presents H1 2025 earnings. Looking ahead, it appears analyst estimates for full-year 2025 are too pessimistic, forecasting EPRA NTA of only €46.71/share at year-end, in essence anticipating no valuation gains. I estimate that ongoing organic earnings and increases in rents/stable yields should push EPRA NTA marginally above €48.00/share at the end of the year. The company also plans to reduce the cost of new construction to €3,600 per square meter, making new homes more affordable to tenants. Even so, this remains well above Vonovia's in-place valuation of €2,247 per square meter, highlighting the significant valuation gain potential in the years ahead. Indeed, 2/3 of the 13% expected return in the coming years will depend on valuation gains, with the remaining 1/3 coming from dividends, which admittedly will show slow growth due to refinancing headwinds. I confirm my Buy rating for the shares in light of the outsized return potential, notwithstanding risks stemming from high leverage and the uncertain timing and magnitude of valuation gains.

As evident from the snippet above, only 1/3 of the 13% return is set to come from dividends, with the remaining 2/3 dependent on valuation gains, driven by higher rents and stable valuation yields. As always, these valuation gains remain highly uncertain in time and magnitude. My other key takeaway is that Vonovia is pivoting towards serial construction in a bid to reduce construction costs from €5,000 per square meter at present to about €3,600 per square meter in the future: Construction cost reduction targets (2025 Analyst & Investor Day development presentation) This will allow the company to charge lower rents for new buildings, down from €20 per square meter currently to only €15 in the future. In any case, as highlighted in the Company overview section, Vonovia's current valuations of €2,247 per square meter remain substantially below even the reduced cost of new construction, signalling significant upside potential as rents gradually increase in future years. Rent regulation extended As expected, the new German government extended the current rent control regulation to the end of 2029. This is already reflected in Vonovia's financial planning, implying little impact on the company in the near term. Over the long term, the extended rent regulation clearly presents downside risks to my EPRA NTA target of about €89/share in 2035, which envisages Vonovia's current below-market rents of €8.15 per square meter gradually catching up to market levels of about €15 per square meter. If the regulation stays in effect post-2029, Vonovia will likely have to marginally increase its leverage to fund new construction and apartment modernization (these activities are currently outside rent regulations). While I am certain that the company will stay within its 40-45% loan-to-value/LTV target range, I would have liked Vonovia to reduce its LTV target to 35-40%. This would allow the company to weather a downturn such as the one from 2022-2024 without downsizing its portfolio at depressed levels in a bid to reduce leverage. Vonovia valuation I estimate Vonovia currently trades at a market-implied cap rate of 4.1%, quite attractive in light of the significant rent growth potential outlined above. Indeed, we note that in Q1 2025, 2.9% of rent growth came from indexation under current rent regulations, 1% from apartment modernization, and 0.4% from new construction, ultimately resulting in an organic rent growth rate of 4.3%:

VONOY vs VNQI in 2025 (Seeking Alpha) I previously covered Vonovia with a Buy rating back in May 2025, highlighting the still significant NAV discount as measured by EPRA NTA, as well as the company's robust organic rent growth. In this article, I will share my expectations for EPRA NTA in Q2 2025 and full-year 2025, as well as my takeaways from the company's Analyst & Investor Day. I ultimately confirm my Buy rating for the shares in light of the anticipated 13% return over the next few years. Company Overview You can access all Vonovia results on its website here. Vonovia manages 607,404 apartments, of which 88% are owned by the company. Germany accounts for 89% of the portfolio, followed by Sweden at 7% and Austria at 4%: Own portfolio overview (Vonovia Q1 financial report) It is worth highlighting that the portfolio is valued at just €2,247 per square meter, reflecting the low in-place rents of only €8.15 per square meter. Vonovia reports results in four key segments – Rental (84.8% of Q1 2025 adjusted EBITDA), Value-add (5.5%), Recurring Sales (2.7%), and Development (6.9%): Segment results (Vonovia Q1 financial report) The company's enterprise value totals €63 billion, of which 37% is funded with common equity, with the remainder coming from net debt. Q2 2025 Earnings Preview Vonovia is set to report Q2 2025 earnings on August 6, 2025. Investors will pay close attention to Vonovia's key NAV measure, European Public Real Estate Association Net Tangible Assets/EPRA NTA, which ended Q1 2025 at €46.27/share. As the company paid a €1.22/share annual dividend during the quarter (35.53% of shareholders opted for a dividend in shares), absent any valuation gains, I estimate that EPRA NTA should be marginally above €45/share, with organic earnings of about €0.45-0.50/share in the quarter partially compensating for the dividend outflow and the issuance of new shares. Hence, the million-dollar question is whether Vonovia will book valuation gains in the quarter. Near-term valuations are difficult to forecast, but given the ongoing robust organic rent growth of around 4% (i.e., almost 1% in a quarter), it is not inconceivable to believe that Vonovia also books some valuation gains, perhaps as high as €0.80/share. To conclude, I estimate that valuation gains and organic earnings may largely but not entirely compensate for the dividend payment, with EPRA NTA ending H1 2025 at about €45.75-46.00/share. 2025 Analyst Outlook Looking further ahead for the rest of 2025, I think that analysts remain too pessimistic about Vonovia's EPRA NTA growth prospects, penciling in a €46.71/share EPRA NTA at the end of 2025: Analyst estimates (Vonovia website (accessed July 2025)) Indeed, given organic earnings of about €0.45-50/share per quarter, EPRA NTA should be able to reach analysts' average estimates without any valuation gains in H2 2025. Instead, assuming stable valuation yields and rising rents, I think that an EPRA NTA increase of about €1.50/share is feasible in H2 2025, with Vonovia's EPRA NTA ultimately ending 2025 marginally above €48.00/share. Analyst & Investor Day Vonovia also held its Analyst & Investor Day on July 1, 2025. The event lacked major announcements, instead focusing on details as to how Vonovia plans to boost its non-Rental segments' contribution to adjusted EBITDA to 20-25% by 2028 (Q1 2025: 15.2%). The company also confirmed its 2025 and 2028 financial targets, ultimately resulting in a 13% total annual return potential at the current discount to EPRA NTA (marginally below 40%), or 9% if the share price eventually rises close to EPRA NTA levels:

Die EZB wird dafür sorgen, dass die Anleiherenditen für die EU-Schuldenländer bezahlbar bleiben. Deutschland gehört inzwischen auch dazu. Sonst crasht das System. Die Briten zahlen den Preis der hohen Anleiherenditen durch den Brexit. Die BoE ist ein Liliput im Vergleich zu den Möglichkeiten der EZB.

Nach meiner Rechnung ca. 2,5k/qm Finde ich gewagt deine Aussage, in Halle Neustadt stehen von 100 k Wohnungen ca. 50% leer gehören nicht V, aber der Schuldenberg, Geld kostet, daher bekommt V kaum Luft Vonovia hat einen schlechten Ruf, zu Unrecht imo. Die Aktie ist mit 28€ gut bezahlt

Ich teile deine langfristige Einschätzung. Allerdings müssen die Zinsen für 10jährige Staatsanleihen in den nächsten 3 Jahren begrenzt bleiben, also um die 3%. Erreichen sie britische Verhältnisse mit über 4% dürfte unsere Kalkulation nicht aufgehen.

36 zu 35 wäre dann ein Euro? Egal auf jeden Fall unterbewertet. Und langfristig sollte der Wert steigen. Weiterer Schuldenabbau, höhere Einnahmen, Dienstleistungen etc. Denke auch das es bis 2027 eher Richtung 45+ gehen sollte. GL

https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/konjunktur/ezb-zinsentscheid-102.html Die Europäische Zentralbank hat den für Sparer wichtigen Einlagenzins auf 2,0 Prozent belassen. Die Währungshüter um EZB-Chefin Christine Lagarde läuteten damit nach sieben Senkungen in Folge eine Zinspause ein.

Ich bin aktuell mit 750 Vonovia Aktien im Spielcasino

Ich widerspreche dir ja ungerne.. Aber der fair Value von Vonovia liegt eher bei 40 Euro als bei 35. Da es politische Unsicherheit bezüglich Mieterschutz und Deckelung von Mieten in Ballungsräumen sollte ein Risikoabschlag von 10% einkalkuliert werden, also sind 36 Euro Kurs realistisch und fair. Also Kurschance ca. 30%

Über die Zinsen und Vonovia: “Analyst Kai Klose von Berenberg argumentiert, dass die negativen Effekte der Zinswende nun weitgehend eingepreist sind. “

Fairer Wert 35+ in der Zukunft sehe ich höhere Kurse

Es ist als Laie immer schwer einzuschätzen, was die Aktie wert ist. Aber ich denke jeder EK unter 30€ ist okay.

Ich besitze bereits über 600 Stück, habe noch Zeit.