VONOVIA WKN: A1ML7J ISIN: DE000A1ML7J1 Kürzel: VNA Forum: Aktien Thema: Hauptdiskussion

VONOY vs VNQI in 2025 (Seeking Alpha) I previously covered Vonovia with a Buy rating back in May 2025, highlighting the still significant NAV discount as measured by EPRA NTA, as well as the company's robust organic rent growth. In this article, I will share my expectations for EPRA NTA in Q2 2025 and full-year 2025, as well as my takeaways from the company's Analyst & Investor Day. I ultimately confirm my Buy rating for the shares in light of the anticipated 13% return over the next few years. Company Overview You can access all Vonovia results on its website here. Vonovia manages 607,404 apartments, of which 88% are owned by the company. Germany accounts for 89% of the portfolio, followed by Sweden at 7% and Austria at 4%: Own portfolio overview (Vonovia Q1 financial report) It is worth highlighting that the portfolio is valued at just €2,247 per square meter, reflecting the low in-place rents of only €8.15 per square meter. Vonovia reports results in four key segments – Rental (84.8% of Q1 2025 adjusted EBITDA), Value-add (5.5%), Recurring Sales (2.7%), and Development (6.9%): Segment results (Vonovia Q1 financial report) The company's enterprise value totals €63 billion, of which 37% is funded with common equity, with the remainder coming from net debt. Q2 2025 Earnings Preview Vonovia is set to report Q2 2025 earnings on August 6, 2025. Investors will pay close attention to Vonovia's key NAV measure, European Public Real Estate Association Net Tangible Assets/EPRA NTA, which ended Q1 2025 at €46.27/share. As the company paid a €1.22/share annual dividend during the quarter (35.53% of shareholders opted for a dividend in shares), absent any valuation gains, I estimate that EPRA NTA should be marginally above €45/share, with organic earnings of about €0.45-0.50/share in the quarter partially compensating for the dividend outflow and the issuance of new shares. Hence, the million-dollar question is whether Vonovia will book valuation gains in the quarter. Near-term valuations are difficult to forecast, but given the ongoing robust organic rent growth of around 4% (i.e., almost 1% in a quarter), it is not inconceivable to believe that Vonovia also books some valuation gains, perhaps as high as €0.80/share. To conclude, I estimate that valuation gains and organic earnings may largely but not entirely compensate for the dividend payment, with EPRA NTA ending H1 2025 at about €45.75-46.00/share. 2025 Analyst Outlook Looking further ahead for the rest of 2025, I think that analysts remain too pessimistic about Vonovia's EPRA NTA growth prospects, penciling in a €46.71/share EPRA NTA at the end of 2025: Analyst estimates (Vonovia website (accessed July 2025)) Indeed, given organic earnings of about €0.45-50/share per quarter, EPRA NTA should be able to reach analysts' average estimates without any valuation gains in H2 2025. Instead, assuming stable valuation yields and rising rents, I think that an EPRA NTA increase of about €1.50/share is feasible in H2 2025, with Vonovia's EPRA NTA ultimately ending 2025 marginally above €48.00/share. Analyst & Investor Day Vonovia also held its Analyst & Investor Day on July 1, 2025. The event lacked major announcements, instead focusing on details as to how Vonovia plans to boost its non-Rental segments' contribution to adjusted EBITDA to 20-25% by 2028 (Q1 2025: 15.2%). The company also confirmed its 2025 and 2028 financial targets, ultimately resulting in a 13% total annual return potential at the current discount to EPRA NTA (marginally below 40%), or 9% if the share price eventually rises close to EPRA NTA levels: