VONOVIA WKN: A1ML7J ISIN: DE000A1ML7J1 Forum: Aktien Thema: Hauptdiskussion

die 10 Y Renditen sind schon unter 2,72 gefallen

Ich könnte mir vorstellen, dass Vonovia in den Rüstungssektor investiert, insbesondere in die Bereitstellung von Unterkünften für Flugzeuge, Panzer und Drohnen.Das könnte ein lukrativer Milliardenmarkt sein. 😜.

Alleine die Ankündigung kostet soviel Geld. Eigentlich sollte Vonovia viel stärker in andere Märkte expandieren

......aber die Grünen haben das Immobilienvermögen beträchtlich reduziert !! - Stichwort Heizungsgesetz

Wir sind nicht im Kommunismus, indem wir Enteignen, das sollte man wissen. Das ist Blödsinn und nicht realierbar, ganz einfach....

Schon echt traurig, dass man sowas überhaupt diskutieren muss. Starug/Enteignungen, etc. Deutschland wird immer weniger investierbar. Die Zahlen würden Kurs x rechtfertigen aber abzüglich Enteignungsrisiko dann nur noch x-30%....

die 10 Y Renditen, schauen zumindest schon mal etwas besser aus

ich denke das einzige wie sowas evtl. durchgehen könnte, wäre mit einer Entschädigung mindestens in höhe des Marktwertes oder höher. Aber selbst dann, kann ich mir das nicht vorstellen.

ich kann es mir auch nicht Vorstellen. Dann noch eine Entschädigung von 40-60 %.

Eine Enteignung, egal in welcher Form, geht nach meiner Meinung überhaupt nicht. Wir sind doch keine Bananenrepublik, das wird vor jedem Gericht bestritten und wer soll das denn bitte bezahlen. Linke und sonstige ExDDR' ler wissen ja hoffentlich noch, wo das endet.

https://www.merkur.de/wirtschaft/neue-siedlungen-fuer-soldaten-vonovia-will-behilflich-sein-zr-93959686.html

Liest sich aber alles sehr positiv

Part2: “Risks The principal risk in the investment case remains Vonovia's high leverage, with net debt accounting for 65% of enterprise value. The reported loan to value [LTV] of 45.9% is more manageable as it does not account for the discount to EPRA NTA the shares trade at. The good news is that with incremental valuation gains, LTV should soon be in the 40-45% target range, while interest coverage will remain stable at around 3.5x as rent growth will help offset rising interest costs: Vonovia debt metrics Vonovia debt metrics (Vonovia H1 2025 results presentation) Either way, a reversal of recent ECB rate cuts will not be welcome news for Vonovia. The silver lining here is that economic data does support incremental ECB rate easing (M3 money supply growth slumped to just 2.9% Y/Y in August 2025, arguably below levels consistent with 2% inflation), with the ECB's own forecast showing an undershoot in inflation in 2026-2027: Outlook for macroeconomic indicators Outlook for macroeconomic indicators (ECB September 2025 staff projections) What is more, 2027 incorporates an upward increase in inflation due to an expansion in Europe's carbon trading scheme to fossil fuels used in transport and heating. Hence absent this effect, inflation would be even lower in 2027. Akin to the U.S.'s experience with tariffs, the expansion in carbon trading will likely result in tighter monetary policy than otherwise would have been required. It remains to be seen whether ECB President Lagarde will echo Fed Chair Powell's comments that the effect will be "short-lived". Last but not least, Vonovia remains subject to rent regulations which limit the pace with which the company can increase rents, although current regulations are already factored in Vonovia's outlook. Conclusion Vonovia delivered solid H1 2025 financial results, prompting the company to increase its full-year guidance. Even so, muted valuation gains and a pause to ECB rate cuts have resulted in Vonovia underperforming international REITs in recent months. Going into year-end 2025, I believe analysts remain too pessimistic on Vonovia's EPRA NTA, with the company on pace to exceed the €46.57/share EPRA NTA consensus, albeit it will likely fall short of my bullish case assumptions of €47.84/share. Even so, with a market-implied cap rate of 4.25% and ample room to grow rents over the next decade, I believe Vonovia remains a compelling choice for conservative investors, with my estimates showing that the €1.22/share dividend should grow by at least 2% annually even when we factor in debt refinancing headwinds. High leverage, a key risk in the investment case, makes Vonovia dependent on the ECB not reversing its recent streak of rate cuts. Thank you for reading. Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.”

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4826466-vonovia-recent-underperformance-presents-buying-opportunity “Vonovia Rating Analysts expect Vonovia's NTA to be around €46.57/share at the end of 2025, up 3.1% relative to the EPRA NTA of €45.16/share at the end of H1 2025: 2025 financial estimates 2025 financial estimates (Vonovia analyst consensus (accessed September 2025)) When you factor in that Vonovia should reasonably generate €0.90-1.00/share in operating free cash flow in H2 2025, it seems that analysts expect very little in terms of valuation gains, a pessimistic assumption in my opinion. I think that Vonovia's EPRA NTA will be above analyst estimates at the end of 2025, albeit somewhat below my bull case target of €47.84/share outlined back in March 2025. The good news is that Vonovia is clearly not following my bear case assumption, which envisaged a stable EPRA NTA of €44.54/share in 2025-2035. As the shares trade at a sizable 42% discount to EPRA NTA, I estimate that the market-implied cap rate for Vonovia stands at ~4.25%. This is quite attractive when you factor in that apartment vacancy is only 2.1%, largely explained by low in-place German rents of €8.05/square meter, roughly 35% below the low end of the €12.34-15.69/square meter real market estimate: Vonovia versus market rents Vonovia versus market rents (Vonovia H1 2025 results presentation) As such, I continue to believe that the company has ample room to grow rents at an above-inflation rate over the next decade. That said, eventually Vonovia's rents should converge to market rents, although as things stand, this will likely only happen in 2035-2045. I should also note that Vonovia now trades below the most conservative EPRA net disposal value [NDV] metric, which stood at €29.85/share at the end of 2024 (no update was provided with H1 2025 results, although I estimate EPRA NDV was little changed in H1 2025 in light of the dividend payment). EPRA NDV assumes a complete sale of the property portfolio and payment of deferred taxes in full - quite unlikely, as Vonovia signals it has largely finished downsizing its portfolio. All in all, I continue to believe Vonovia offers an attractive risk-reward opportunity, which after the recent underperformance relative to international REITs is even more pronounced. As a reminder, only 1/3 of the company's return should come from the current dividend, with 2/3 coming from valuation gains which are uncertain in time and magnitude. With that caveat in mind, I confirm my Buy rating for the shares.

Zitat aus dem Artikel: “Ziel sei es, nur den Gebäudesachwert zu berücksichtigen - also die Kosten, die anfallen würden, wenn man das Gebäude zu heutigen Kosten neu errichten würde.”

Ja seh ich nicht ganz so schwarz, wenn man die Techwerte rausrechnet sind die Börsen normal bewertet. Pharma wird auch wieder kommen, da gehts nicht um Enteignung sondern um Kosten. Da wird man einen Kompromiss hinbekommen aber ich werd nicht gleich enteignet. Im Energiesektor öl/gas geht mMn viel. Energienetze für die KI Zentren werdne benötigt. Bei den Versicherungen geb ich dir Recht, das kann böse Enden man kann nur auf ein eingreifen der EZB hoffen und mit der Inflation leben. Bitcoin usw. sehe ich nicht im Spektrum Anlage, ist halt Werterhalt